Annual economic and employment impacts of promoting U.S. exports and investing in infrastructure, clean energy, and energy efficiency by 2024
| Economic impact (billions of dollars) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2024 | Change | Percent change |
|
| U.S. total exports (before and after export promotion policies) | $1,643.2 | $2,704.9 | $1,061.7 | 64.6% |
| U.S. general imports (before and after export promotion policies) | $2,497.5 | $2,704.9 | $207.4 | 8.3% |
| U.S. trade balance (before and after export promotion policies) | -$854.3 | $0.0 | $854.3 | |
| Infrastructure investments (per year) | $0.0 | $250.0 | $250.0 | |
| Clean energy and efficiency investments (per year) | $0.0 | $250.0 | $250.0 | |
| Total new spending on domestic goods and services (per year) | $1,354.3 | $1,354.3 | ||
| Total respending (60% of new domestic spending of $1,354.3 billion) | $812.6 | |||
| Employment impact | ||||
| 2019 | 2024 | Change | Total jobs with respending | |
| U.S. total exports–jobs supported (before and after export promotion policies) | 7,507,400 | 12,210,300 | 4,702,900 | |
| U.S. general imports–jobs displaced (before and after export promotion policies) | 12,647,400 | 13,842,100 | 1,194,700 | |
| U.S. trade balance–net jobs supported (before and after export promotion policies) | -5,140,000 | -1,631,800 | 3,508,200 | 6,571,600 |
| Infrastructure investments (permanent jobs supported*) | 0 | 2,071,600 | 2,071,600 | 3,880,600 |
| Climate, clean energy and efficiency investments (permanent jobs supported*) | 0 | 1,315,400 | 1,315,400 | 2,464,000 |
| Total direct and indirect jobs supported | 6,895,200 | 12,916,200 | ||
| Respending jobs | 6,021,000 | |||
| Range of potential jobs supported, including respending | 6,895,200 to 12,916,200 | |||
* Investments and spending at these levels will support continuing employment as long as spending is sustained at this level in future years.
Note: Table estimates reflect changes in trade due to export promotion policies from baseline year 2019 and a four-year, $500 billion annual investment plan beginning in 2021.
Source: Authors’ analysis of employment requirements overall and by industry (BLS-EP 2020a) applied to trade data (USITC 2020), authors’ trade projections, and infrastructure and clean energy/energy efficiency investments at the allocations specified in Pollin and Chakraborty 2020. For a more detailed explanation of data sources and computations, see Table 1 and the text and the appendix in this report.
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