Figure B

When GDP falls below potential GDP, unemployment rises: Actual and potential GDP since 1979 ($2017)

GDP, actual Potential GDP
1979q1 7,239 7,124
1979q2 7,246 7,186
1979q3 7,300 7,246
1979q4 7,319 7,301
1980q1 7,342 7,352
1980q2 7,190 7,396
1980q3 7,182 7,435
1980q4 7,316 7,475
1981q1 7,459 7,519
1981q2 7,404 7,568
1981q3 7,492 7,619
1981q4 7,411 7,673
1982q1 7,296 7,729
1982q2 7,329 7,786
1982q3 7,301 7,844
1982q4 7,304 7,904
1983q1 7,400 7,964
1983q2 7,568 8,027
1983q3 7,720 8,093
1983q4 7,881 8,161
1984q1 8,035 8,252
1984q2 8,174 8,322
1984q3 8,252 8,393
1984q4 8,320 8,465
1985q1 8,401 8,538
1985q2 8,475 8,614
1985q3 8,604 8,690
1985q4 8,668 8,767
1986q1 8,749 8,843
1986q2 8,789 8,918
1986q3 8,873 8,992
1986q4 8,920 9,066
1987q1 8,986 9,139
1987q2 9,083 9,212
1987q3 9,162 9,284
1987q4 9,319 9,357
1988q1 9,368 9,428
1988q2 9,491 9,498
1988q3 9,546 9,568
1988q4 9,673 9,640
1989q1 9,772 9,714
1989q2 9,846 9,793
1989q3 9,919 9,873
1989q4 9,939 9,953
1990q1 10,047 10,029
1990q2 10,084 10,101
1990q3 10,091 10,167
1990q4 9,999 10,230
1991q1 9,952 10,291
1991q2 10,030 10,352
1991q3 10,080 10,414
1991q4 10,115 10,476
1992q1 10,236 10,539
1992q2 10,347 10,604
1992q3 10,450 10,670
1992q4 10,559 10,737
1993q1 10,576 10,805
1993q2 10,638 10,875
1993q3 10,689 10,945
1993q4 10,834 11,016
1994q1 10,939 11,087
1994q2 11,087 11,158
1994q3 11,152 11,230
1994q4 11,280 11,302
1995q1 11,320 11,373
1995q2 11,354 11,446
1995q3 11,450 11,519
1995q4 11,528 11,595
1996q1 11,614 11,675
1996q2 11,808 11,762
1996q3 11,914 11,858
1996q4 12,038 11,960
1997q1 12,115 12,067
1997q2 12,317 12,176
1997q3 12,471 12,288
1997q4 12,577 12,402
1998q1 12,704 12,518
1998q2 12,821 12,638
1998q3 12,983 12,762
1998q4 13,192 12,894
1999q1 13,316 13,038
1999q2 13,427 13,193
1999q3 13,605 13,355
1999q4 13,828 13,520
2000q1 13,878 13,680
2000q2 14,131 13,827
2000q3 14,145 13,959
2000q4 14,230 14,080
2001q1 14,183 14,193
2001q2 14,272 14,301
2001q3 14,215 14,406
2001q4 14,254 14,508
2002q1 14,373 14,610
2002q2 14,461 14,713
2002q3 14,520 14,816
2002q4 14,538 14,917
2003q1 14,614 15,014
2003q2 14,744 15,105
2003q3 14,989 15,192
2003q4 15,163 15,279
2004q1 15,249 15,369
2004q2 15,367 15,464
2004q3 15,513 15,564
2004q4 15,671 15,666
2005q1 15,845 15,766
2005q2 15,923 15,861
2005q3 16,048 15,954
2005q4 16,137 16,046
2006q1 16,354 16,138
2006q2 16,396 16,231
2006q3 16,421 16,323
2006q4 16,562 16,409
2007q1 16,612 16,494
2007q2 16,713 16,574
2007q3 16,810 16,653
2007q4 16,915 16,730
2008q1 16,843 16,806
2008q2 16,943 16,882
2008q3 16,854 16,957
2008q4 16,485 17,029
2009q1 16,298 17,096
2009q2 16,269 17,160
2009q3 16,326 17,219
2009q4 16,503 17,274
2010q1 16,583 17,328
2010q2 16,743 17,380
2010q3 16,872 17,434
2010q4 16,961 17,494
2011q1 16,921 17,564
2011q2 17,035 17,645
2011q3 17,031 17,734
2011q4 17,223 17,826
2012q1 17,367 17,916
2012q2 17,445 18,001
2012q3 17,470 18,080
2012q4 17,490 18,157
2013q1 17,662 18,234
2013q2 17,710 18,312
2013q3 17,860 18,392
2013q4 18,016 18,474
2014q1 17,954 18,558
2014q2 18,186 18,645
2014q3 18,407 18,736
2014q4 18,500 18,828
2015q1 18,667 18,922
2015q2 18,782 19,017
2015q3 18,857 19,110
2015q4 18,892 19,200
2016q1 19,002 19,284
2016q2 19,063 19,362
2016q3 19,198 19,437
2016q4 19,304 19,512
2017q1 19,398 19,593
2017q2 19,507 19,682
2017q3 19,661 19,779
2017q4 19,882 19,880
2018q1 20,044 19,980
2018q2 20,150 20,077
2018q3 20,276 20,172
2018q4 20,305 20,265
2019q1 20,415 20,359
2019q2 20,585 20,455
2019q3 20,818 20,555
2019q4 20,951 20,654
2020q1 20,666 20,750
2020q2 19,035 20,839
2020q3 20,512 20,915
2020q4 20,724 21,004
2021q1 20,991 21,099
2021q2 21,310 21,201
2021q3 21,483 21,308
2021q4 21,848 21,417
2022q1 21,739 21,524
2022q2 21,708 21,627
2022q3 21,851 21,726
2022q4 21,990 21,821
2023q1 22,112 21,913
2023q2 22,225 22,011
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Note: Recessions are shaded in grey. 

Source: GDP data from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Estimates of potential GDP from the Congressional Budget Office.  

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