Table 1

Projected spending and tax cuts stemming from ACA repeal in 2019, by state

Effect in $ millions Effect as share of state GDP
Types of spending cuts Tax cuts Types of spending cuts Tax cuts
Medicaid Premium subsidies Cost-sharing subsidies Total Medicaid Premium subsidies Cost-sharing subsidies Total
Alabama* 271 931 147 1,349 768 0.14% 0.47% 0.07% 0.68% 0.38%
Alaska 107 150 21 278 139 0.20% 0.28% 0.04% 0.53% 0.26%
Arizona 2,571 827 49 3,447 1,163 0.88% 0.28% 0.02% 1.18% 0.40%
Arkansas 629 159 35 823 449 0.53% 0.13% 0.03% 0.69% 0.38%
California 8,053 4,783 752 13,588 9,908 0.32% 0.19% 0.03% 0.55% 0.40%
Colorado 2,508 190 33 2,731 1,282 0.80% 0.06% 0.01% 0.87% 0.41%
Connecticut 866 348 43 1,257 1,361 0.34% 0.14% 0.02% 0.50% 0.54%
Delaware 222 71 10 303 180 0.32% 0.10% 0.01% 0.44% 0.26%
District of Columbia 139 7 0 146 271 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.12% 0.22%
Florida* 1,511 5,106 1,013 7,630 4,367 0.17% 0.57% 0.11% 0.86% 0.49%
Georgia* 953 1,430 381 2,764 1,895 0.19% 0.29% 0.08% 0.56% 0.38%
Hawaii 306 42 6 354 236 0.38% 0.05% 0.01% 0.44% 0.29%
Idaho* 208 276 56 540 242 0.32% 0.42% 0.09% 0.82% 0.37%
Illinois 3,074 1,001 122 4,197 3,115 0.40% 0.13% 0.02% 0.54% 0.40%
Indiana 1,146 385 78 1,609 1,076 0.34% 0.11% 0.02% 0.48% 0.32%
Iowa 446 156 24 626 553 0.26% 0.09% 0.01% 0.36% 0.32%
Kansas* 143 329 60 532 568 0.10% 0.22% 0.04% 0.36% 0.38%
Kentucky 3,834 213 46 4,093 677 1.98% 0.11% 0.02% 2.12% 0.35%
Louisiana 1,860 316 50 2,226 848 0.78% 0.13% 0.02% 0.93% 0.35%
Maine* 41 331 57 429 220 0.07% 0.58% 0.10% 0.75% 0.38%
Maryland 1,908 332 53 2,293 1,540 0.52% 0.09% 0.01% 0.63% 0.42%
Massachusetts 1,414 415 75 1,904 2,244 0.29% 0.09% 0.02% 0.39% 0.46%
Michigan 2,513 633 118 3,264 1,781 0.54% 0.14% 0.03% 0.70% 0.38%
Minnesota 1,193 163 2 1,358 1,271 0.36% 0.05% 0.00% 0.41% 0.39%
Mississippi* 313 390 85 788 408 0.30% 0.37% 0.08% 0.74% 0.39%
Missouri* 444 960 212 1,616 1,077 0.15% 0.33% 0.07% 0.55% 0.37%
Montana 698 97 12 807 177 1.54% 0.21% 0.03% 1.78% 0.39%
Nebraska* 12 345 52 409 359 0.01% 0.30% 0.05% 0.36% 0.32%
Nevada 1,028 262 50 1,340 523 0.74% 0.19% 0.04% 0.96% 0.37%
New Hampshire 329 70 16 415 307 0.45% 0.09% 0.02% 0.56% 0.42%
New Jersey 4,363 513 94 4,970 2,958 0.77% 0.09% 0.02% 0.88% 0.52%
New Mexico 2,201 77 16 2,294 292 2.36% 0.08% 0.02% 2.46% 0.31%
New York 3,966 771 120 4,857 5,719 0.28% 0.05% 0.01% 0.34% 0.40%
North Carolina* 1,634 2,947 475 5,056 1,796 0.33% 0.59% 0.10% 1.02% 0.36%
North Dakota 169 47 7 223 199 0.30% 0.08% 0.01% 0.40% 0.36%
Ohio 3,498 438 97 4,033 2,105 0.57% 0.07% 0.02% 0.66% 0.34%
Oklahoma* 135 601 87 823 678 0.07% 0.32% 0.05% 0.44% 0.36%
Oregon 2,877 255 41 3,173 739 1.32% 0.12% 0.02% 1.46% 0.34%
Pennsylvania 1,883 1,074 121 3,078 2,722 0.27% 0.15% 0.02% 0.43% 0.38%
Rhode Island 556 50 10 616 221 0.99% 0.09% 0.02% 1.10% 0.39%
South Carolina* 88 787 164 1,039 787 0.04% 0.39% 0.08% 0.52% 0.39%
South Dakota* 21 90 15 126 172 0.04% 0.19% 0.03% 0.27% 0.36%
Tennessee* 1,260 834 132 2,226 1,162 0.40% 0.26% 0.04% 0.70% 0.37%
Texas* 1,310 3,234 822 5,366 5,962 0.08% 0.20% 0.05% 0.33% 0.37%
Utah* 116 242 46 404 472 0.08% 0.16% 0.03% 0.27% 0.32%
Vermont 171 83 9 263 118 0.57% 0.28% 0.03% 0.88% 0.39%
Virginia* 204 1,122 252 1,578 2,038 0.04% 0.23% 0.05% 0.33% 0.42%
Washington 3,100 352 73 3,525 1,656 0.70% 0.08% 0.02% 0.79% 0.37%
West Virginia 1,011 143 21 1,175 252 1.36% 0.19% 0.03% 1.58% 0.34%
Wisconsin* 157 837 139 1,133 1,065 0.05% 0.28% 0.05% 0.38% 0.35%
Wyoming* 10 122 30 162 127 0.03% 0.31% 0.08% 0.41% 0.32%
Totals 67,470 35,337 6,429 109,236 70,245 0.47% 0.21% 0.04% 0.72% 0.37%

* Medicaid non-expansion states

Source: Data from Blumberg, Buettgens, and Holahan (2016), Tax Policy Center (2016), Frank (2017), and tabulations from the American Community Survey (ACS) as described in the text and the technical appendix.

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