What’s Up (or Down) With the Boomers’ Retirement Savings?!
The recent release of the Federal Reserve’s triennial Survey of Consumer Finances has many retirement researchers scratching their heads. As expected, GenXers’ savings (shaded blue lines in Figure 1) benefited from the rebound in stock prices and the economic recovery. Meanwhile, Silent Generation retirees (dashed red and yellow lines) saw a surprisingly large bounce in retirement savings. But Baby Boomers (solid purple, black and green lines) who were approaching retirement when the housing bubble burst saw weak gains or even losses between 2010 and 2013. Those who were born between 1949 and 1954, for example, saw a decline in mean retirement account savings from $176,000 in 2010 to $167,000 in 2013 (values are in 2013 dollars rounded to the nearest $1,000). This is far below the $199,000 their predecessors—older Boomers born between 1943 and 1948—had accumulated at the same age in 2007.
It’s not news that the Boomers’ retirement savings took a hit during the downturn. What’s more surprising is that they have fared so poorly in the recovery compared to younger workers and retirees. One explanation is simply that the Boomers, unlike older retirees, were hit by both the stock and labor market downturns and didn’t benefit as much from the subsequent rebound in stock prices as younger workers who were heavily invested in stocks through target date funds.
Mean retirement account balances by birth cohort , 1989–2013
1931–1936 | 1937–1942 | 1943–1948 | 1949–1954 | 1955–1960 | 1961–1966 | 1967–1972 | 1973–1978 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1989 | $56,383 | $44,937 | $30,369 | $27,428 | $7,419 | |||
1992 | $68,060 | $75,678 | $44,749 | $22,920 | $12,552 | $7,176 | ||
1995 | $64,254 | $90,781 | $75,262 | $50,090 | $22,642 | $16,480 | ||
1998 | $113,886 | $114,908 | $91,373 | $64,166 | $48,084 | $29,458 | $11,059 | |
2001 | $124,634 | $162,156 | $155,809 | $91,203 | $75,722 | $40,706 | $18,841 | |
2004 | $111,834 | $149,322 | $158,827 | $128,848 | $81,818 | $54,205 | $27,100 | $11,640 |
2007 | $109,709 | $164,654 | $199,218 | $161,187 | $114,482 | $69,036 | $41,928 | $18,436 |
2010 | $80,091 | $138,102 | $209,317 | $175,697 | $138,713 | $85,454 | $48,472 | $25,864 |
2013 | $88,944 | $168,828 | $214,277 | $166,597 | $154,630 | $103,838 | $75,433 | $46,593 |
Source: EPI's analysis of the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finance
TIP: For apples-to-apples comparisons, look at how successive 6-year birth cohorts fared at 6-year intervals (2013, 2007, and 2001), ignoring intervening surveys.
This may not be all that’s going on, though. The real mystery is why Silent Generation retirees born between 1925 and 1936 saw such a bounce in retirement account holdings, whether you look at mean values in Figure 1 or contingent median values in Figure 2, below. Contingent medians—the 50th percentile of households with retirement account savings—are less affected by extreme values but don’t take into account the decline in the share of retiree households with retirement accounts (Figure 3.) The fact that retirement savings increased for older retirees is surprising because households over age 70 are generally drawing down savings, as can be seen by the fact that the dotted lines in the charts sloped downward before 2013.
Median retirement account balances by birth cohort , 1989–2013
1931–1936 | 1937–1942 | 1943–1948 | 1949–1954 | 1955–1960 | 1961–1966 | 1967–1972 | 1973-1978 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1989 | $39,767 | $28,921 | $16,268 | $18,076 | $9,038 | |||
1992 | $55,242 | $56,867 | $35,745 | $15,435 | $9,749 | $6,824 | ||
1995 | $59,197 | $45,536 | $41,742 | $28,840 | $18,215 | $12,902 | ||
1998 | $72,191 | $57,181 | $50,033 | $46,317 | $31,449 | $24,302 | $7,719 | |
2001 | $99,804 | $78,793 | $78,793 | $51,215 | $48,589 | $30,204 | $12,082 | |
2004 | $85,087 | $128,247 | $102,351 | $85,087 | $46,859 | $49,326 | $20,347 | $14,798 |
2007 | $74,105 | $106,666 | $112,280 | $101,052 | $67,368 | $49,403 | $33,684 | $14,596 |
2010 | $60,015 | $83,592 | $160,754 | $97,524 | $68,589 | $61,087 | $36,438 | $24,649 |
2013 | $100,000 | $158,000 | $136,000 | $114,000 | $100,000 | $85,000 | $52,000 | $36,000 |
Source: EPI's analysis of the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finance
Percent of families with retirement account savings by birth cohort, 1989–2013
1931-1936 | 1937-1942 | 1943-1948 | 1949-1954 | 1955-1960 | 1961-1966 | 1967-1972 | 1973-1978 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1989 | 53% | 49% | 50% | 50% | 36% | |||
1992 | 52% | 52% | 51% | 54% | 42% | 36% | ||
1995 | 47% | 55% | 62% | 56% | 52% | 51% | ||
1998 | 50% | 62% | 61% | 59% | 61% | 56% | 44% | |
2001 | 47% | 58% | 65% | 63% | 61% | 61% | 57% | |
2004 | 45% | 50% | 63% | 59% | 60% | 57% | 53% | 44% |
2007 | 44% | 52% | 60% | 64% | 68% | 59% | 56% | 52% |
2010 | 39% | 46% | 57% | 57% | 61% | 60% | 53% | 51% |
2013 | 31% | 37% | 51% | 57% | 61% | 57% | 59% | 51% |
Source: EPI's analysis of the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finance
One explanation could be a surge in pension buyouts that may have affected Silent Generation retirees more than Boomers (Motorola last week announced the third-biggest buyout to date). Since lump sums from buyouts are often rolled over into IRAs, this would have given a boost to retirees’ account balances without reflecting any improvement in their well-being (to the contrary, buyouts are generally a bad deal for workers). National account statistics show a significant increase in pension benefit payments and withdrawals in 2012 and 2013, though the 2013 figure especially is subject to revision and there’s no way to know how much of this is regular pension benefits.
Even if it turns out that older retirees did see improvements in their retirement wealth, their overall wealth, or net worth, was flat between 2010 and 2013 (see Figure 4).
Median net worth by birth cohort, 1989-2013
1931-1936 | 1937-1942 | 1943-1948 | 1949-1954 | 1955-1960 | 1961-1966 | 1967-1972 | 1973-1978 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1989 | $178,136 | $177,413 | $142,798 | $84,341 | $22,052 | |||
1992 | $203,420 | $167,854 | $106,633 | $84,926 | $39,774 | $16,589 | ||
1995 | $199,222 | $168,333 | $154,869 | $100,028 | $63,326 | $37,188 | ||
1998 | $197,131 | $179,834 | $177,561 | $136,033 | $101,739 | $54,179 | $16,011 | |
2001 | $235,066 | $228,368 | $259,570 | $163,495 | $127,448 | $78,163 | $34,643 | |
2004 | $232,423 | $252,794 | $314,328 | $199,300 | $155,253 | $113,079 | $50,066 | $19,878 |
2007 | $244,096 | $281,822 | $315,169 | $247,913 | $238,482 | $120,532 | $92,327 | $39,635 |
2010 | $220,448 | $218,680 | $256,200 | $165,791 | $151,538 | $93,773 | $52,320 | $21,005 |
2013 | $221,400 | $205,650 | $253,055 | $176,200 | $140,880 | $106,600 | $63,000 | $36,900 |
Source: EPI's analysis of the Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Finance
This is largely attributable to a decline in home values, which is somewhat surprising given the rebound in housing prices since 2010. As Fed economist Jeffrey Thompson explained in a recent visit to EPI, this is partly due to the exact timing of the surveys and survey responses that may not reflect the most accurate or up-to-date housing values, as well as a continuing decline in homeownership. Though housing prices have continued to climb in 2014, many Boomers may never fully recover from the collapse of the housing bubble and Great Recession.
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