Posted June 4, 2015 at 12:36 pm by Elise Gould

What to Watch on Jobs Day: What’s at Stake at the Upcoming FOMC Meeting and the Outlook for Young Workers

In tomorrow’s release of the Employment Report, I’m primarily looking for evidence confirming that the Federal Reserve should continue to stay the course through its June (and most likely September) meetings. I’ll also be looking more closely at the labor market for young people: specifically, youth entering the labor market in the summer and prospects for recent high school grads.

When the Federal Open Market Committee meets in two weeks, they will almost surely continue their current agenda and resist pressure to raise interest rates. Raising interest rates prematurely would slow the recovery, which is still in much need of oxygen. Job growth sputtered in March, but picked up again in April. If the economy continues to grow at an average of 191,000 jobs a month (as it has for the past three months), it will return to pre-Great Recession labor market health by August 2017. If you want to downplay the very weak March data, then the average job growth over the past six months (255,000 jobs per month) moving forward gets us back to prerecession health by October 2016.

All measures point to a slowly recovering economy, but an economy that is still far from the health of 2007, let alone the health of the far-stronger economy of 2000. The employment-to-population ratio remains seriously depressed, and there are still over 3 million potential workers sidelined by the weak labor market. Further, wage growth has continued to fall flat—nominal hourly wage growth has remained at around 2 percent over the last five years, far below any reasonable target.

Now that the college graduating class of 2015 has begun to try their luck in the labor market, it’s time to consider how 2015’s high school graduates are expected to do as they graduate this month. Extensive details on the specifics of the high school graduates—including underemployment and wages—are available here. Below is a chart of the unemployment rates of everyone in the labor force versus those under 25 years old and the youngest potential workers, those between 16 and 19 years old. While the unemployment rates for all groups have declined precipitously during the recovery, two other facts are readily apparent. First, the unemployment rates for any of them have not fully recovered (and it’s important to remember that this measure of unemployment fails to include those working part-time that want full time jobs or those who may have just recently given up looking for work). Second, the younger the potential labor mark entrant, the higher the unemployment rate—and the farther those younger cohorts are from a healthy unemployment rate. Unfortunately, this does not bode well for young workers looking for summer employment or their first job out of high school or college.

Figure A

Unemployment rate of workers by age group, 1969–2015

Date All 16–24 16–19
1969-01-01 3.4% 8.2% 12.0%
1969-02-01 3.4% 8.1% 11.9%
1969-03-01 3.4% 8.3% 12.3%
1969-04-01 3.4% 8.2% 12.0%
1969-05-01 3.4% 8.3% 12.4%
1969-06-01 3.5% 8.3% 12.2%
1969-07-01 3.5% 8.7% 12.8%
1969-08-01 3.5% 8.2% 12.2%
1969-09-01 3.7% 8.9% 12.6%
1969-10-01 3.7% 8.8% 12.6%
1969-11-01 3.5% 8.2% 11.6%
1969-12-01 3.5% 8.4% 11.8%
1970-01-01 3.9% 9.3% 13.5%
1970-02-01 4.2% 9.8% 13.3%
1970-03-01 4.4% 9.6% 13.4%
1970-04-01 4.6% 10.4% 14.7%
1970-05-01 4.8% 10.4% 14.2%
1970-06-01 4.9% 11.2% 16.3%
1970-07-01 5.0% 11.0% 14.7%
1970-08-01 5.1% 11.4% 15.7%
1970-09-01 5.4% 12.1% 16.2%
1970-10-01 5.5% 12.2% 16.7%
1970-11-01 5.9% 12.9% 17.4%
1970-12-01 6.1% 12.8% 17.1%
1971-01-01 5.9% 12.6% 16.8%
1971-02-01 5.9% 12.5% 16.3%
1971-03-01 6.0% 12.8% 16.9%
1971-04-01 5.9% 12.5% 16.3%
1971-05-01 5.9% 13.0% 16.8%
1971-06-01 5.9% 13.2% 17.7%
1971-07-01 6.0% 12.9% 17.7%
1971-08-01 6.1% 12.8% 16.8%
1971-09-01 6.0% 12.4% 16.7%
1971-10-01 5.8% 12.4% 16.9%
1971-11-01 6.0% 13.0% 16.9%
1971-12-01 6.0% 12.7% 16.9%
1972-01-01 5.8% 12.7% 16.9%
1972-02-01 5.7% 12.8% 18.0%
1972-03-01 5.8% 12.8% 17.2%
1972-04-01 5.7% 12.4% 16.5%
1972-05-01 5.7% 11.8% 15.3%
1972-06-01 5.7% 11.8% 15.9%
1972-07-01 5.6% 12.0% 15.6%
1972-08-01 5.6% 12.1% 16.5%
1972-09-01 5.5% 12.0% 16.3%
1972-10-01 5.6% 12.0% 15.8%
1972-11-01 5.3% 11.5% 15.7%
1972-12-01 5.2% 11.3% 15.6%
1973-01-01 4.9% 10.2% 13.7%
1973-02-01 5.0% 10.9% 15.3%
1973-03-01 4.9% 10.4% 14.3%
1973-04-01 5.0% 11.0% 15.5%
1973-05-01 4.9% 10.7% 14.9%
1973-06-01 4.9% 10.4% 13.8%
1973-07-01 4.8% 10.6% 14.3%
1973-08-01 4.8% 10.3% 14.0%
1973-09-01 4.8% 10.7% 14.7%
1973-10-01 4.6% 10.0% 14.4%
1973-11-01 4.8% 10.4% 15.0%
1973-12-01 4.9% 10.5% 14.6%
1974-01-01 5.1% 10.8% 14.6%
1974-02-01 5.2% 11.0% 14.9%
1974-03-01 5.1% 10.7% 14.9%
1974-04-01 5.1% 10.5% 14.3%
1974-05-01 5.1% 11.3% 15.4%
1974-06-01 5.4% 11.8% 16.3%
1974-07-01 5.5% 12.1% 16.8%
1974-08-01 5.5% 11.7% 14.9%
1974-09-01 5.9% 12.6% 17.0%
1974-10-01 6.0% 12.5% 17.2%
1974-11-01 6.6% 13.4% 17.8%
1974-12-01 7.2% 14.2% 18.2%
1975-01-01 8.1% 15.1% 19.5%
1975-02-01 8.1% 15.6% 19.4%
1975-03-01 8.6% 16.2% 19.9%
1975-04-01 8.8% 16.5% 19.9%
1975-05-01 9.0% 16.9% 20.4%
1975-06-01 8.8% 16.3% 20.9%
1975-07-01 8.6% 16.6% 20.7%
1975-08-01 8.4% 16.3% 20.7%
1975-09-01 8.4% 16.1% 19.5%
1975-10-01 8.4% 16.1% 19.8%
1975-11-01 8.3% 15.7% 19.0%
1975-12-01 8.2% 15.6% 19.8%
1976-01-01 7.9% 15.4% 19.6%
1976-02-01 7.7% 14.7% 19.0%
1976-03-01 7.6% 14.6% 18.9%
1976-04-01 7.7% 14.9% 19.5%
1976-05-01 7.4% 14.3% 18.6%
1976-06-01 7.6% 14.5% 18.5%
1976-07-01 7.8% 14.2% 18.3%
1976-08-01 7.8% 15.0% 19.6%
1976-09-01 7.6% 14.4% 18.6%
1976-10-01 7.7% 14.9% 19.0%
1976-11-01 7.8% 14.9% 19.2%
1976-12-01 7.8% 14.8% 19.1%
1977-01-01 7.5% 14.3% 18.9%
1977-02-01 7.6% 14.5% 18.4%
1977-03-01 7.4% 14.2% 18.6%
1977-04-01 7.2% 13.7% 18.0%
1977-05-01 7.0% 13.7% 17.8%
1977-06-01 7.2% 14.0% 18.8%
1977-07-01 6.9% 13.3% 17.5%
1977-08-01 7.0% 13.7% 17.4%
1977-09-01 6.8% 13.5% 18.0%
1977-10-01 6.8% 13.0% 17.2%
1977-11-01 6.8% 13.1% 17.2%
1977-12-01 6.4% 12.2% 15.5%
1978-01-01 6.4% 12.9% 16.7%
1978-02-01 6.3% 13.0% 17.2%
1978-03-01 6.3% 13.0% 17.3%
1978-04-01 6.1% 12.6% 16.6%
1978-05-01 6.0% 11.8% 16.0%
1978-06-01 5.9% 11.7% 15.4%
1978-07-01 6.2% 12.5% 16.5%
1978-08-01 5.9% 11.7% 15.7%
1978-09-01 6.0% 12.1% 16.4%
1978-10-01 5.8% 11.5% 16.1%
1978-11-01 5.9% 11.9% 16.3%
1978-12-01 6.0% 12.1% 16.7%
1979-01-01 5.9% 11.6% 16.1%
1979-02-01 5.9% 11.7% 16.1%
1979-03-01 5.8% 11.6% 15.9%
1979-04-01 5.8% 11.6% 16.3%
1979-05-01 5.6% 11.6% 16.1%
1979-06-01 5.7% 11.5% 15.7%
1979-07-01 5.7% 11.6% 15.6%
1979-08-01 6.0% 12.2% 16.5%
1979-09-01 5.9% 12.1% 16.5%
1979-10-01 6.0% 12.1% 16.5%
1979-11-01 5.9% 11.6% 15.9%
1979-12-01 6.0% 12.4% 16.2%
1980-01-01 6.3% 12.6% 16.5%
1980-02-01 6.3% 12.5% 16.6%
1980-03-01 6.3% 12.3% 16.3%
1980-04-01 6.9% 13.1% 16.2%
1980-05-01 7.5% 14.7% 18.6%
1980-06-01 7.6% 14.7% 18.9%
1980-07-01 7.8% 14.9% 19.1%
1980-08-01 7.7% 14.7% 18.9%
1980-09-01 7.5% 14.3% 18.0%
1980-10-01 7.5% 14.5% 18.4%
1980-11-01 7.5% 14.4% 18.5%
1980-12-01 7.2% 13.7% 17.6%
1981-01-01 7.5% 14.5% 19.1%
1981-02-01 7.4% 14.6% 19.3%
1981-03-01 7.4% 14.5% 19.2%
1981-04-01 7.2% 14.5% 18.8%
1981-05-01 7.5% 15.1% 19.1%
1981-06-01 7.5% 14.9% 19.8%
1981-07-01 7.2% 14.1% 18.6%
1981-08-01 7.4% 14.5% 18.8%
1981-09-01 7.6% 14.9% 19.7%
1981-10-01 7.9% 15.3% 20.3%
1981-11-01 8.3% 15.9% 21.3%
1981-12-01 8.5% 16.1% 21.1%
1982-01-01 8.6% 16.5% 22.0%
1982-02-01 8.9% 17.0% 22.6%
1982-03-01 9.0% 16.9% 21.8%
1982-04-01 9.3% 17.4% 22.8%
1982-05-01 9.4% 17.3% 22.8%
1982-06-01 9.6% 17.5% 22.9%
1982-07-01 9.8% 18.0% 24.0%
1982-08-01 9.8% 18.1% 23.7%
1982-09-01 10.1% 18.2% 23.6%
1982-10-01 10.4% 18.5% 23.7%
1982-11-01 10.8% 19.0% 24.1%
1982-12-01 10.8% 18.9% 24.1%
1983-01-01 10.4% 18.5% 23.1%
1983-02-01 10.4% 18.4% 22.8%
1983-03-01 10.3% 18.2% 23.5%
1983-04-01 10.2% 18.0% 23.4%
1983-05-01 10.1% 17.7% 22.8%
1983-06-01 10.1% 17.8% 24.0%
1983-07-01 9.4% 16.8% 22.8%
1983-08-01 9.5% 17.3% 22.9%
1983-09-01 9.2% 16.4% 21.7%
1983-10-01 8.8% 16.2% 21.4%
1983-11-01 8.5% 15.4% 20.2%
1983-12-01 8.3% 14.9% 19.9%
1984-01-01 8.0% 14.8% 19.5%
1984-02-01 7.8% 14.3% 19.4%
1984-03-01 7.8% 14.4% 19.8%
1984-04-01 7.7% 14.5% 19.2%
1984-05-01 7.4% 13.6% 18.7%
1984-06-01 7.2% 13.2% 18.2%
1984-07-01 7.5% 13.7% 18.8%
1984-08-01 7.5% 14.1% 18.7%
1984-09-01 7.3% 14.0% 19.2%
1984-10-01 7.4% 13.6% 18.6%
1984-11-01 7.2% 13.2% 17.7%
1984-12-01 7.3% 13.7% 18.8%
1985-01-01 7.3% 13.6% 18.8%
1985-02-01 7.2% 13.6% 18.3%
1985-03-01 7.2% 13.6% 18.2%
1985-04-01 7.3% 13.2% 17.5%
1985-05-01 7.2% 13.6% 18.5%
1985-06-01 7.4% 13.5% 18.5%
1985-07-01 7.4% 14.2% 20.2%
1985-08-01 7.1% 13.3% 17.9%
1985-09-01 7.1% 13.3% 17.9%
1985-10-01 7.1% 14.1% 20.0%
1985-11-01 7.0% 13.5% 18.3%
1985-12-01 7.0% 13.5% 19.1%
1986-01-01 6.7% 13.0% 18.1%
1986-02-01 7.2% 13.6% 18.8%
1986-03-01 7.2% 13.2% 18.2%
1986-04-01 7.1% 13.7% 19.2%
1986-05-01 7.2% 13.7% 18.6%
1986-06-01 7.2% 13.5% 19.2%
1986-07-01 7.0% 13.3% 18.4%
1986-08-01 6.9% 13.1% 18.0%
1986-09-01 7.0% 13.6% 18.4%
1986-10-01 7.0% 13.0% 17.7%
1986-11-01 6.9% 12.8% 18.1%
1986-12-01 6.6% 13.0% 17.5%
1987-01-01 6.6% 13.0% 17.7%
1987-02-01 6.6% 13.1% 18.0%
1987-03-01 6.6% 12.8% 17.9%
1987-04-01 6.3% 12.6% 17.3%
1987-05-01 6.3% 12.5% 17.4%
1987-06-01 6.2% 12.3% 16.5%
1987-07-01 6.1% 11.8% 15.8%
1987-08-01 6.0% 11.7% 15.9%
1987-09-01 5.9% 11.8% 16.2%
1987-10-01 6.0% 11.8% 17.3%
1987-11-01 5.8% 11.5% 16.6%
1987-12-01 5.7% 11.2% 16.0%
1988-01-01 5.7% 11.5% 16.1%
1988-02-01 5.7% 11.3% 15.6%
1988-03-01 5.7% 11.8% 16.6%
1988-04-01 5.4% 11.2% 16.0%
1988-05-01 5.6% 11.3% 15.3%
1988-06-01 5.4% 10.5% 14.2%
1988-07-01 5.4% 10.8% 14.8%
1988-08-01 5.6% 11.0% 15.4%
1988-09-01 5.4% 10.8% 15.5%
1988-10-01 5.4% 10.8% 15.1%
1988-11-01 5.3% 10.5% 13.9%
1988-12-01 5.3% 10.8% 14.8%
1989-01-01 5.4% 11.8% 16.4%
1989-02-01 5.2% 10.6% 15.0%
1989-03-01 5.0% 10.1% 13.9%
1989-04-01 5.2% 10.6% 14.6%
1989-05-01 5.2% 10.4% 14.8%
1989-06-01 5.3% 11.2% 15.7%
1989-07-01 5.2% 10.6% 14.2%
1989-08-01 5.2% 10.9% 14.6%
1989-09-01 5.3% 11.1% 15.2%
1989-10-01 5.3% 11.0% 15.0%
1989-11-01 5.4% 11.3% 15.5%
1989-12-01 5.4% 11.2% 15.3%
1990-01-01 5.4% 10.8% 14.8%
1990-02-01 5.3% 10.7% 15.0%
1990-03-01 5.2% 10.6% 14.3%
1990-04-01 5.4% 11.1% 14.7%
1990-05-01 5.4% 10.8% 15.0%
1990-06-01 5.2% 10.4% 14.3%
1990-07-01 5.5% 10.7% 15.0%
1990-08-01 5.7% 11.5% 16.3%
1990-09-01 5.9% 11.7% 16.4%
1990-10-01 5.9% 11.8% 16.5%
1990-11-01 6.2% 12.0% 17.1%
1990-12-01 6.3% 12.0% 17.4%
1991-01-01 6.4% 12.6% 18.6%
1991-02-01 6.6% 12.8% 17.4%
1991-03-01 6.8% 13.1% 18.3%
1991-04-01 6.7% 12.7% 17.8%
1991-05-01 6.9% 13.6% 18.8%
1991-06-01 6.9% 13.6% 18.5%
1991-07-01 6.8% 13.8% 19.4%
1991-08-01 6.9% 13.5% 18.9%
1991-09-01 6.9% 13.4% 18.8%
1991-10-01 7.0% 13.9% 19.1%
1991-11-01 7.0% 13.8% 19.0%
1991-12-01 7.3% 14.6% 20.3%
1992-01-01 7.3% 13.9% 19.2%
1992-02-01 7.4% 14.2% 20.1%
1992-03-01 7.4% 14.1% 20.3%
1992-04-01 7.4% 13.6% 18.5%
1992-05-01 7.6% 14.4% 20.1%
1992-06-01 7.8% 15.2% 23.0%
1992-07-01 7.7% 14.5% 20.8%
1992-08-01 7.6% 14.2% 19.9%
1992-09-01 7.6% 14.5% 21.0%
1992-10-01 7.3% 13.5% 18.3%
1992-11-01 7.4% 14.3% 20.5%
1992-12-01 7.4% 14.2% 19.8%
1993-01-01 7.3% 14.0% 19.9%
1993-02-01 7.1% 14.1% 19.7%
1993-03-01 7.0% 13.6% 19.7%
1993-04-01 7.1% 13.8% 19.5%
1993-05-01 7.1% 14.2% 19.8%
1993-06-01 7.0% 13.7% 19.9%
1993-07-01 6.9% 13.1% 18.4%
1993-08-01 6.8% 13.0% 18.4%
1993-09-01 6.7% 12.6% 18.2%
1993-10-01 6.8% 13.0% 18.7%
1993-11-01 6.6% 12.9% 18.5%
1993-12-01 6.5% 12.5% 17.9%
1994-01-01 6.6% 13.4% 18.3%
1994-02-01 6.6% 12.9% 18.0%
1994-03-01 6.5% 13.1% 18.0%
1994-04-01 6.4% 13.3% 19.1%
1994-05-01 6.1% 12.5% 18.0%
1994-06-01 6.1% 12.4% 17.6%
1994-07-01 6.1% 12.4% 17.6%
1994-08-01 6.0% 12.5% 17.3%
1994-09-01 5.9% 12.1% 17.5%
1994-10-01 5.8% 12.0% 17.5%
1994-11-01 5.6% 11.4% 15.6%
1994-12-01 5.5% 11.5% 17.0%
1995-01-01 5.6% 11.4% 16.5%
1995-02-01 5.4% 11.7% 17.4%
1995-03-01 5.4% 11.6% 16.1%
1995-04-01 5.8% 12.0% 17.5%
1995-05-01 5.6% 11.9% 17.5%
1995-06-01 5.6% 12.0% 17.1%
1995-07-01 5.7% 12.5% 18.2%
1995-08-01 5.7% 12.5% 17.3%
1995-09-01 5.6% 12.7% 17.6%
1995-10-01 5.5% 12.4% 17.4%
1995-11-01 5.6% 12.0% 17.5%
1995-12-01 5.6% 12.4% 18.0%
1996-01-01 5.6% 12.8% 17.7%
1996-02-01 5.5% 12.2% 16.8%
1996-03-01 5.5% 12.2% 17.1%
1996-04-01 5.6% 12.0% 17.1%
1996-05-01 5.6% 12.2% 16.8%
1996-06-01 5.3% 11.8% 16.2%
1996-07-01 5.5% 12.4% 17.1%
1996-08-01 5.1% 11.6% 16.8%
1996-09-01 5.2% 11.4% 15.6%
1996-10-01 5.2% 11.6% 16.3%
1996-11-01 5.4% 11.9% 16.8%
1996-12-01 5.4% 11.8% 16.6%
1997-01-01 5.3% 12.2% 16.8%
1997-02-01 5.2% 11.8% 17.1%
1997-03-01 5.2% 11.7% 16.4%
1997-04-01 5.1% 11.6% 15.9%
1997-05-01 4.9% 11.1% 16.0%
1997-06-01 5.0% 11.4% 16.8%
1997-07-01 4.9% 11.2% 17.1%
1997-08-01 4.8% 11.1% 16.1%
1997-09-01 4.9% 11.2% 16.1%
1997-10-01 4.7% 11.0% 15.1%
1997-11-01 4.6% 10.8% 14.8%
1997-12-01 4.7% 10.5% 14.0%
1998-01-01 4.6% 10.9% 13.9%
1998-02-01 4.6% 10.6% 14.5%
1998-03-01 4.7% 10.5% 14.8%
1998-04-01 4.3% 9.7% 13.5%
1998-05-01 4.4% 10.3% 14.8%
1998-06-01 4.5% 10.6% 14.9%
1998-07-01 4.5% 10.6% 14.6%
1998-08-01 4.5% 10.8% 14.7%
1998-09-01 4.6% 11.0% 15.0%
1998-10-01 4.5% 10.5% 15.7%
1998-11-01 4.4% 9.8% 14.7%
1998-12-01 4.4% 9.6% 13.5%
1999-01-01 4.3% 10.2% 15.2%
1999-02-01 4.4% 10.1% 13.9%
1999-03-01 4.2% 9.9% 14.2%
1999-04-01 4.3% 10.0% 14.2%
1999-05-01 4.2% 9.6% 13.3%
1999-06-01 4.3% 10.0% 13.9%
1999-07-01 4.3% 9.9% 13.4%
1999-08-01 4.2% 9.6% 13.3%
1999-09-01 4.2% 10.2% 14.8%
1999-10-01 4.1% 10.0% 13.8%
1999-11-01 4.1% 9.9% 13.9%
1999-12-01 4.0% 9.6% 13.4%
2000-01-01 4.0% 9.4% 12.7%
2000-02-01 4.1% 9.9% 13.8%
2000-03-01 4.0% 9.6% 13.3%
2000-04-01 3.8% 9.2% 12.6%
2000-05-01 4.0% 9.8% 12.8%
2000-06-01 4.0% 9.3% 12.3%
2000-07-01 4.0% 9.3% 13.4%
2000-08-01 4.1% 9.3% 14.0%
2000-09-01 3.9% 8.9% 13.0%
2000-10-01 3.9% 8.9% 12.8%
2000-11-01 3.9% 9.1% 13.0%
2000-12-01 3.9% 9.2% 13.2%
2001-01-01 4.2% 9.6% 13.8%
2001-02-01 4.2% 9.6% 13.7%
2001-03-01 4.3% 9.8% 13.8%
2001-04-01 4.4% 10.2% 13.9%
2001-05-01 4.3% 9.9% 13.4%
2001-06-01 4.5% 10.4% 14.2%
2001-07-01 4.6% 10.2% 14.4%
2001-08-01 4.9% 11.2% 15.6%
2001-09-01 5.0% 10.8% 15.2%
2001-10-01 5.3% 11.5% 16.0%
2001-11-01 5.5% 11.6% 15.9%
2001-12-01 5.7% 12.2% 17.0%
2002-01-01 5.7% 12.1% 16.5%
2002-02-01 5.7% 11.8% 16.0%
2002-03-01 5.7% 12.5% 16.6%
2002-04-01 5.9% 12.3% 16.7%
2002-05-01 5.8% 11.6% 16.6%
2002-06-01 5.8% 11.8% 16.7%
2002-07-01 5.8% 12.1% 16.8%
2002-08-01 5.7% 12.0% 17.0%
2002-09-01 5.7% 11.7% 16.3%
2002-10-01 5.7% 11.8% 15.1%
2002-11-01 5.9% 12.1% 17.1%
2002-12-01 6.0% 12.1% 16.9%
2003-01-01 5.8% 12.0% 17.2%
2003-02-01 5.9% 12.1% 17.2%
2003-03-01 5.9% 12.0% 17.8%
2003-04-01 6.0% 12.6% 17.7%
2003-05-01 6.1% 12.9% 17.9%
2003-06-01 6.3% 13.2% 19.0%
2003-07-01 6.2% 13.0% 18.2%
2003-08-01 6.1% 12.3% 16.6%
2003-09-01 6.1% 12.8% 17.6%
2003-10-01 6.0% 12.2% 17.2%
2003-11-01 5.8% 12.1% 15.7%
2003-12-01 5.7% 11.7% 16.2%
2004-01-01 5.7% 12.0% 17.0%
2004-02-01 5.6% 11.7% 16.5%
2004-03-01 5.8% 12.0% 16.8%
2004-04-01 5.6% 11.6% 16.6%
2004-05-01 5.6% 12.1% 17.1%
2004-06-01 5.6% 12.0% 17.0%
2004-07-01 5.5% 12.1% 17.8%
2004-08-01 5.4% 11.5% 16.7%
2004-09-01 5.4% 11.7% 16.6%
2004-10-01 5.5% 12.1% 17.4%
2004-11-01 5.4% 11.5% 16.4%
2004-12-01 5.4% 11.7% 17.6%
2005-01-01 5.3% 11.6% 16.2%
2005-02-01 5.4% 12.4% 17.5%
2005-03-01 5.2% 11.8% 17.1%
2005-04-01 5.2% 11.8% 17.8%
2005-05-01 5.1% 11.7% 17.8%
2005-06-01 5.0% 11.1% 16.3%
2005-07-01 5.0% 10.7% 16.1%
2005-08-01 4.9% 11.1% 16.1%
2005-09-01 5.0% 10.8% 15.5%
2005-10-01 5.0% 10.8% 16.1%
2005-11-01 5.0% 11.1% 17.0%
2005-12-01 4.9% 10.5% 14.9%
2006-01-01 4.7% 10.4% 15.1%
2006-02-01 4.8% 10.8% 15.3%
2006-03-01 4.7% 10.5% 16.1%
2006-04-01 4.7% 10.3% 14.6%
2006-05-01 4.6% 10.0% 14.0%
2006-06-01 4.6% 10.4% 15.8%
2006-07-01 4.7% 10.9% 15.9%
2006-08-01 4.7% 10.7% 16.0%
2006-09-01 4.5% 10.6% 16.3%
2006-10-01 4.4% 10.6% 15.2%
2006-11-01 4.5% 10.6% 14.8%
2006-12-01 4.4% 10.0% 14.6%
2007-01-01 4.6% 10.3% 14.8%
2007-02-01 4.5% 9.9% 14.9%
2007-03-01 4.4% 10.0% 14.9%
2007-04-01 4.5% 10.3% 15.9%
2007-05-01 4.4% 9.9% 15.9%
2007-06-01 4.6% 10.6% 16.3%
2007-07-01 4.7% 10.5% 15.3%
2007-08-01 4.6% 10.7% 15.9%
2007-09-01 4.7% 11.2% 15.9%
2007-10-01 4.7% 10.7% 15.4%
2007-11-01 4.7% 10.8% 16.2%
2007-12-01 5.0% 11.7% 16.8%
2008-01-01 5.0% 11.7% 17.8%
2008-02-01 4.9% 11.4% 16.6%
2008-03-01 5.1% 11.4% 16.1%
2008-04-01 5.0% 11.0% 15.9%
2008-05-01 5.4% 13.0% 19.0%
2008-06-01 5.6% 12.9% 19.2%
2008-07-01 5.8% 13.5% 20.7%
2008-08-01 6.1% 13.1% 18.6%
2008-09-01 6.1% 13.5% 19.1%
2008-10-01 6.5% 13.6% 20.0%
2008-11-01 6.8% 14.0% 20.3%
2008-12-01 7.3% 14.8% 20.5%
2009-01-01 7.8% 15.0% 20.7%
2009-02-01 8.3% 16.0% 22.3%
2009-03-01 8.7% 16.5% 22.2%
2009-04-01 9.0% 16.7% 22.2%
2009-05-01 9.4% 17.6% 23.4%
2009-06-01 9.5% 18.0% 24.7%
2009-07-01 9.5% 17.9% 24.3%
2009-08-01 9.6% 18.1% 25.0%
2009-09-01 9.8% 18.4% 25.9%
2009-10-01 10.0% 19.1% 27.2%
2009-11-01 9.9% 19.2% 26.9%
2009-12-01 9.9% 18.8% 26.7%
2010-01-01 9.8% 18.8% 26.1%
2010-02-01 9.8% 18.7% 25.6%
2010-03-01 9.9% 18.8% 26.2%
2010-04-01 9.9% 19.5% 25.4%
2010-05-01 9.6% 18.1% 26.5%
2010-06-01 9.4% 18.2% 25.9%
2010-07-01 9.4% 18.4% 25.9%
2010-08-01 9.5% 17.7% 25.5%
2010-09-01 9.5% 17.9% 25.8%
2010-10-01 9.4% 18.7% 27.2%
2010-11-01 9.8% 18.5% 24.8%
2010-12-01 9.3% 17.9% 25.3%
2011-01-01 9.2% 18.1% 25.7%
2011-02-01 9.0% 17.7% 24.1%
2011-03-01 9.0% 17.6% 24.4%
2011-04-01 9.1% 17.6% 24.6%
2011-05-01 9.0% 17.3% 23.9%
2011-06-01 9.1% 17.1% 24.6%
2011-07-11 9.0% 17.3% 24.7%
2011-08-20 9.0% 17.4% 25.0%
2011-09-01 9.0% 17.3% 24.4%
2011-10-11 8.8% 16.7% 24.2%
2011-11-20 8.6% 17.1% 24.2%
2011-12-30 8.5% 16.7% 23.3%
2012-01-12 8.3% 16.1% 23.7%
2012-02-12 8.3% 16.5% 23.8%
2012-03-12 8.2% 16.3% 25.0%
2012-04-12 8.2% 16.5% 24.8%
2012-05-12 8.2% 16.1% 24.3%
2012-06-12 8.2% 16.3% 23.4%
2012-07-12 8.2% 16.3% 23.6%
2012-08-12 8.0% 16.7% 24.3%
2012-09-12 7.8% 15.4% 23.7%
2012-10-12 7.8% 16.1% 23.9%
2012-11-12 7.7% 15.9% 24.0%
2012-12-12 7.9% 16.6% 24.1%
2013-01-12 8.0% 16.8% 23.9%
2013-02-12 7.7% 16.2% 25.2%
2013-03-12 7.5% 16.1% 24.1%
2013-04-12 7.6% 16.1% 24.1%
2013-05-12 7.5% 16.2% 24.2%
2013-06-12 7.5% 16.1% 23.3%
2013-07-12 7.3% 15.5% 23.2%
2013-08-12 7.2% 15.5% 22.5%
2013-09-12 7.2% 15.0% 21.1%
2013-10-12 7.2% 15.0% 22.2%
2013-11-12 7.0% 14.2% 20.9%
2013-12-12 6.7% 13.5% 20.4%
2014-01-12 6.6% 14.3% 20.8%
2014-02-12 6.7% 14.3% 21.3%
2014-03-12 6.6% 14.5% 20.9%
2014-04-12 6.2% 12.8% 19.1%
2014-05-12 6.3% 13.2% 19.2%
2014-06-12 6.1% 13.3% 20.7%
2014-07-12 6.2% 13.6% 20.0%
2014-08-12 6.1% 13.0% 19.4%
2014-09-12 5.9% 13.7% 19.8%
2014-10-12 5.7% 12.7% 18.7%
2014-11-12 5.8% 12.7% 17.5%
2014-12-12 5.6% 12.4% 16.8%
2015-01-12 5.7% 12.2% 18.8%
2015-02-12 5.5% 11.9% 17.1%
2015-03-12 5.5% 12.3% 17.5%
2015-04-12 5.4% 11.6% 17.1%
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Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. Data are seasonally adjusted.

Source: Economic Policy Institute analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey public data series

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