What to watch on jobs day: The economy is recovering fast because federal relief matched the scale of the crisis
This is an excerpt from an op-ed in CNN Business. Read the full op-ed here.
When the coronavirus pandemic shut down businesses in spring 2020, the labor market lost 22 million jobs in just two months—more than twice as many jobs lost during the entire Great Recession and financial crisis of 2008–2009. Given that a full labor market recovery from the Great Recession took a decade, there were sincere worries that Covid-19’s economic wound could take even longer to heal. But because we undertook a radically different—and better—policy response to the latest crisis, the labor market is far healthier today than anybody expected it would be in those grim early days of the pandemic.
Over the last 12 months, the economy has added 6.6 million jobs, an astonishing pace. And while there is still a significant gap in the labor market, we are on track to return to pre-pandemic labor market conditions before the end of 2022—a recovery that is roughly eight years faster than the recovery from the Great Recession, as shown in the figure below.
Federal fiscal relief at the scale of the problem led to a faster recovery from the pandemic recession: Private-sector employment change since business cycle peak, December 2007 and February 2020
Months since peak | 2007 | 2020 |
---|---|---|
0 | 100 | 100 |
1 | 99.999138 | 98.8860174 |
2 | 99.9060474 | 83.7870781 |
3 | 99.8414012 | 86.1978785 |
4 | 99.6284995 | 89.6771456 |
5 | 99.44749 | 90.6746384 |
6 | 99.2707902 | 91.6104147 |
7 | 99.0578886 | 92.3502411 |
8 | 98.8191284 | 92.9666345 |
9 | 98.4484899 | 93.2798457 |
10 | 98.0235485 | 93.1965284 |
11 | 97.3874293 | 93.5228544 |
12 | 96.7823404 | 94.0574735 |
13 | 96.0867467 | 94.55892 |
14 | 95.4489036 | 94.7224687 |
15 | 94.7731347 | 95.0163934 |
16 | 94.0732313 | 95.4082932 |
17 | 93.8301614 | 95.9004822 |
18 | 93.4629706 | 96.2838959 |
19 | 93.2173149 | 96.5994214 |
20 | 93.0457868 | 97.134812 |
21 | 92.9121845 | 97.6185149 |
22 | 92.6777341 | 98.0065574 |
23 | 92.68032 | 98.3490839 |
24 | 92.4924148 | |
25 | 92.4863812 | |
26 | 92.420011 | |
27 | 92.5398221 | |
28 | 92.6949731 | |
29 | 92.7923735 | |
30 | 92.8932216 | |
31 | 92.9682113 | |
32 | 93.0923321 | |
33 | 93.1854227 | |
34 | 93.3733278 | |
35 | 93.4896911 | |
36 | 93.5698524 | |
37 | 93.5931251 | |
38 | 93.8129224 | |
39 | 94.0353055 | |
40 | 94.3128534 | |
41 | 94.4473176 | |
42 | 94.6205696 | |
43 | 94.7714108 | |
44 | 94.907599 | |
45 | 95.1377396 | |
46 | 95.3006482 | |
47 | 95.4376982 | |
48 | 95.6264653 | |
49 | 95.9384912 | |
50 | 96.1634602 | |
51 | 96.373776 | |
52 | 96.4547993 | |
53 | 96.5582333 | |
54 | 96.6047787 | |
55 | 96.7504482 | |
56 | 96.8961178 | |
57 | 97.0495449 | |
58 | 97.2055579 | |
59 | 97.3572611 | |
60 | 97.5598193 | |
61 | 97.7399669 | |
62 | 97.9692456 | |
63 | 98.0985381 | |
64 | 98.2640325 | |
65 | 98.4596952 | |
66 | 98.636395 | |
67 | 98.7544821 | |
68 | 98.9492829 | |
69 | 99.1070197 | |
70 | 99.3052682 | |
71 | 99.5216177 | |
72 | 99.6009171 | |
73 | 99.7569301 | |
74 | 99.8905323 | |
75 | 100.102572 |
Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Employment Statistics public data series.
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