Labor market bounced back in November: Job growth has averaged 173,000 in the last three months
Below, EPI senior economist Elise Gould offers her insights on today’s release of the jobs report for November. Read the full thread here.
It’s a big #NumbersDay!! Latest #EconSky data says the labor market is still going strong. After the softer numbers in October from the weather and striking workers, November bounces back with strong job growth along with upward revisions. On average, the economy added 173k jobs the last 3 months.
— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) December 6, 2024 at 7:42 AM
Some context for today’s #jobsday data:
– The hurricanes were a substantial drag on the labor market and the job numbers for October so today’s numbers reflect a bounce back from that
– Thanksgiving was late this year so retail trade was lower than typical so the seasonal adjustment pulled it down— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) December 6, 2024 at 7:50 AM
You can see the fingerprints of those factors in the November #jobsday data. Health care continues to trend up as it has for years now. Leisure and hospitality bounced back while retail trade fell. Again, the non-seasonally adjusted retail series was up, but the seasonal factor dragged it down.
— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) December 6, 2024 at 8:16 AM
Nominal wage growth held steady at 4.0% over the year. This rate is in line with the pace of productivity improvement over the last year and a stubborn low labor share of corporate sector income. Importantly, it means that real average wages continue to rise as they have the last 18 months.
— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) December 6, 2024 at 8:29 AM
The overall unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.2%, still quite strong. The Black unemployment rate ticked up to 6.4%, significantly higher than the white or AAPI rate. It’s notably a volatile series due to a smaller sample size, but still a key measure to keep an eye on in coming months.
— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) December 6, 2024 at 8:34 AM
Another indicator to keep an eye on in coming months (and always) is the share of the population 25-54 with a job. After hitting a high of 80.9% this summer, it has slowly trended down this fall. Both the prime-age employment-to-population ratio for men and women softened the last two months.
— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) December 6, 2024 at 8:41 AM
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