A disappointing jobs report overall
This morning’s employment situation report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the economy added 160,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate held steady at 5.0 percent, while the labor force participation rate (LFPR) and the employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) ticked down. Nominal hourly wage growth held its recent trend, coming in at 2.5 percent over the year.
Payroll employment growth of 160,000 is notably slower than recent months. Even with the downward revisions to March, job growth looks slower than first quarter of this year (averaging 203,000) or last quarter of 2015 (averaging 282,000). While it is true that as the economy reaches full employment, job growth would be expected to slow, we are not nearly close enough to full employment to view this slow down as a positive move. Given that the first quarter GDP numbers came in so weak as well (0.5 percent annualized), it’s unlikely April’s low growth is a data blip that will be significantly revised upwards.
April payroll employment growth disappoints
Date | Average monthly growth in non-farm payroll |
---|---|
Q4 2015 | 282 |
Q1 2016 | 203 |
April 2016 | 160 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment Statistics public data series
The LFPR had been ticking up for several months but unfortunately it dipped down in April, from 63.0 percent to 62.8 percent. Zeroing in on prime-age workers (ages 25-54 years old), their LFPR also fell in April, from 81.4 percent to 81.2 percent. These trends are directly reflected in a pick-up in the number of missing workers, which increased to 2.5 million in April. If the unemployment rate included these workers, who would be employed or looking for work if the labor market were stronger, it would be 6.5 percent, as opposed to the official rate of 5.0 percent. In general, labor force participation has been on the rise (and the number of missing workers has been falling) so hopefully this is just a one-month blip in the data and next month we will continue will the more promising trends.
The prime-age EPOP fell in April as well, from 78.0 percent to 77.7 percent. As with the LFPR, the overall trend has been promising and hopefully will continue in upcoming months. Historically, the prime-age EPOP is still quite low, below its 2007 peak of 80.3 percent, and substantially below its 2000 peak of 81.9 percent. An even more troubling benchmark for April’s 77.7 percent prime-age EPOP is that it remains below the worst of the last two business cycles (78.1 percent in 1993).
Employment-to-population ratio of workers ages 25-54, 1989-2016
Employment-to-population ratio | |
---|---|
Jan-1989 | 80.0 |
Feb-1989 | 79.9 |
Mar-1989 | 79.9 |
Apr-1989 | 79.8 |
May-1989 | 79.8 |
Jun-1989 | 79.8 |
Jul-1989 | 79.8 |
Aug-1989 | 79.9 |
Sep-1989 | 80.0 |
Oct-1989 | 79.9 |
Nov-1989 | 80.2 |
Dec-1989 | 80.1 |
Jan-1990 | 80.2 |
Feb-1990 | 80.2 |
Mar-1990 | 80.1 |
Apr-1990 | 79.9 |
May-1990 | 79.9 |
Jun-1990 | 79.8 |
Jul-1990 | 79.6 |
Aug-1990 | 79.5 |
Sep-1990 | 79.4 |
Oct-1990 | 79.4 |
Nov-1990 | 79.2 |
Dec-1990 | 79.0 |
Jan-1991 | 78.9 |
Feb-1991 | 78.9 |
Mar-1991 | 78.7 |
Apr-1991 | 79.0 |
May-1991 | 78.6 |
Jun-1991 | 78.7 |
Jul-1991 | 78.6 |
Aug-1991 | 78.5 |
Sep-1991 | 78.6 |
Oct-1991 | 78.5 |
Nov-1991 | 78.4 |
Dec-1991 | 78.3 |
Jan-1992 | 78.4 |
Feb-1992 | 78.2 |
Mar-1992 | 78.2 |
Apr-1992 | 78.4 |
May-1992 | 78.4 |
Jun-1992 | 78.5 |
Jul-1992 | 78.4 |
Aug-1992 | 78.4 |
Sep-1992 | 78.3 |
Oct-1992 | 78.2 |
Nov-1992 | 78.2 |
Dec-1992 | 78.2 |
Jan-1993 | 78.2 |
Feb-1993 | 78.1 |
Mar-1993 | 78.2 |
Apr-1993 | 78.2 |
May-1993 | 78.5 |
Jun-1993 | 78.6 |
Jul-1993 | 78.6 |
Aug-1993 | 78.8 |
Sep-1993 | 78.6 |
Oct-1993 | 78.7 |
Nov-1993 | 79.0 |
Dec-1993 | 79.0 |
Jan-1994 | 78.9 |
Feb-1994 | 78.9 |
Mar-1994 | 78.9 |
Apr-1994 | 79.0 |
May-1994 | 79.2 |
Jun-1994 | 78.8 |
Jul-1994 | 79.1 |
Aug-1994 | 79.2 |
Sep-1994 | 79.6 |
Oct-1994 | 79.6 |
Nov-1994 | 79.8 |
Dec-1994 | 79.8 |
Jan-1995 | 79.7 |
Feb-1995 | 80.0 |
Mar-1995 | 79.9 |
Apr-1995 | 79.8 |
May-1995 | 79.7 |
Jun-1995 | 79.5 |
Jul-1995 | 79.7 |
Aug-1995 | 79.6 |
Sep-1995 | 79.8 |
Oct-1995 | 79.8 |
Nov-1995 | 79.7 |
Dec-1995 | 79.7 |
Jan-1996 | 79.8 |
Feb-1996 | 79.9 |
Mar-1996 | 79.9 |
Apr-1996 | 79.9 |
May-1996 | 80.0 |
Jun-1996 | 80.1 |
Jul-1996 | 80.4 |
Aug-1996 | 80.5 |
Sep-1996 | 80.4 |
Oct-1996 | 80.6 |
Nov-1996 | 80.5 |
Dec-1996 | 80.5 |
Jan-1997 | 80.5 |
Feb-1997 | 80.4 |
Mar-1997 | 80.6 |
Apr-1997 | 80.7 |
May-1997 | 80.6 |
Jun-1997 | 80.9 |
Jul-1997 | 81.1 |
Aug-1997 | 81.3 |
Sep-1997 | 81.1 |
Oct-1997 | 81.1 |
Nov-1997 | 81.0 |
Dec-1997 | 81.0 |
Jan-1998 | 81.0 |
Feb-1998 | 81.0 |
Mar-1998 | 81.0 |
Apr-1998 | 81.1 |
May-1998 | 81.0 |
Jun-1998 | 81.0 |
Jul-1998 | 81.1 |
Aug-1998 | 81.2 |
Sep-1998 | 81.3 |
Oct-1998 | 81.1 |
Nov-1998 | 81.2 |
Dec-1998 | 81.3 |
Jan-1999 | 81.8 |
Feb-1999 | 81.5 |
Mar-1999 | 81.3 |
Apr-1999 | 81.3 |
May-1999 | 81.4 |
Jun-1999 | 81.4 |
Jul-1999 | 81.2 |
Aug-1999 | 81.3 |
Sep-1999 | 81.3 |
Oct-1999 | 81.5 |
Nov-1999 | 81.6 |
Dec-1999 | 81.5 |
Jan-2000 | 81.8 |
Feb-2000 | 81.8 |
Mar-2000 | 81.7 |
Apr-2000 | 81.9 |
May-2000 | 81.5 |
Jun-2000 | 81.5 |
Jul-2000 | 81.3 |
Aug-2000 | 81.1 |
Sep-2000 | 81.1 |
Oct-2000 | 81.1 |
Nov-2000 | 81.3 |
Dec-2000 | 81.4 |
Jan-2001 | 81.4 |
Feb-2001 | 81.3 |
Mar-2001 | 81.3 |
Apr-2001 | 80.9 |
May-2001 | 80.8 |
Jun-2001 | 80.6 |
Jul-2001 | 80.5 |
Aug-2001 | 80.2 |
Sep-2001 | 80.2 |
Oct-2001 | 79.9 |
Nov-2001 | 79.7 |
Dec-2001 | 79.8 |
Jan-2002 | 79.6 |
Feb-2002 | 79.8 |
Mar-2002 | 79.6 |
Apr-2002 | 79.5 |
May-2002 | 79.4 |
Jun-2002 | 79.2 |
Jul-2002 | 79.1 |
Aug-2002 | 79.3 |
Sep-2002 | 79.4 |
Oct-2002 | 79.2 |
Nov-2002 | 78.8 |
Dec-2002 | 79.0 |
Jan-2003 | 78.9 |
Feb-2003 | 78.9 |
Mar-2003 | 79.0 |
Apr-2003 | 79.1 |
May-2003 | 78.9 |
Jun-2003 | 78.9 |
Jul-2003 | 78.8 |
Aug-2003 | 78.7 |
Sep-2003 | 78.6 |
Oct-2003 | 78.6 |
Nov-2003 | 78.7 |
Dec-2003 | 78.8 |
Jan-2004 | 78.9 |
Feb-2004 | 78.8 |
Mar-2004 | 78.7 |
Apr-2004 | 78.9 |
May-2004 | 79.0 |
Jun-2004 | 79.1 |
Jul-2004 | 79.2 |
Aug-2004 | 79.0 |
Sep-2004 | 79.0 |
Oct-2004 | 79.0 |
Nov-2004 | 79.1 |
Dec-2004 | 78.9 |
Jan-2005 | 79.2 |
Feb-2005 | 79.2 |
Mar-2005 | 79.2 |
Apr-2005 | 79.4 |
May-2005 | 79.5 |
Jun-2005 | 79.2 |
Jul-2005 | 79.4 |
Aug-2005 | 79.6 |
Sep-2005 | 79.4 |
Oct-2005 | 79.3 |
Nov-2005 | 79.2 |
Dec-2005 | 79.3 |
Jan-2006 | 79.6 |
Feb-2006 | 79.7 |
Mar-2006 | 79.8 |
Apr-2006 | 79.6 |
May-2006 | 79.7 |
Jun-2006 | 79.8 |
Jul-2006 | 79.8 |
Aug-2006 | 79.8 |
Sep-2006 | 79.9 |
Oct-2006 | 80.1 |
Nov-2006 | 80.0 |
Dec-2006 | 80.1 |
Jan-2007 | 80.3 |
Feb-2007 | 80.1 |
Mar-2007 | 80.2 |
Apr-2007 | 80.0 |
May-2007 | 80.0 |
Jun-2007 | 79.9 |
Jul-2007 | 79.8 |
Aug-2007 | 79.8 |
Sep-2007 | 79.7 |
Oct-2007 | 79.6 |
Nov-2007 | 79.7 |
Dec-2007 | 79.7 |
Jan-2008 | 80.0 |
Feb-2008 | 79.9 |
Mar-2008 | 79.8 |
Apr-2008 | 79.6 |
May-2008 | 79.5 |
Jun-2008 | 79.4 |
Jul-2008 | 79.2 |
Aug-2008 | 78.8 |
Sep-2008 | 78.8 |
Oct-2008 | 78.4 |
Nov-2008 | 78.1 |
Dec-2008 | 77.6 |
Jan-2009 | 77.0 |
Feb-2009 | 76.7 |
Mar-2009 | 76.2 |
Apr-2009 | 76.2 |
May-2009 | 75.9 |
Jun-2009 | 75.9 |
Jul-2009 | 75.8 |
Aug-2009 | 75.6 |
Sep-2009 | 75.1 |
Oct-2009 | 75.0 |
Nov-2009 | 75.2 |
Dec-2009 | 74.8 |
Jan-2010 | 75.1 |
Feb-2010 | 75.1 |
Mar-2010 | 75.1 |
Apr-2010 | 75.4 |
May-2010 | 75.1 |
Jun-2010 | 75.2 |
Jul-2010 | 75.1 |
Aug-2010 | 75.0 |
Sep-2010 | 75.1 |
Oct-2010 | 75.0 |
Nov-2010 | 74.8 |
Dec-2010 | 75.0 |
Jan-2011 | 75.2 |
Feb-2011 | 75.1 |
Mar-2011 | 75.3 |
Apr-2011 | 75.1 |
May-2011 | 75.2 |
Jun-2011 | 75.0 |
Jul-2011 | 75.0 |
Aug-2011 | 75.1 |
Sep-2011 | 74.9 |
Oct-2011 | 74.9 |
Nov-2011 | 75.3 |
Dec-2011 | 75.4 |
Jan-2012 | 75.5 |
Feb-2012 | 75.6 |
Mar-2012 | 75.7 |
Apr-2012 | 75.7 |
May-2012 | 75.7 |
Jun-2012 | 75.6 |
Jul-2012 | 75.6 |
Aug-2012 | 75.7 |
Sep-2012 | 75.9 |
Oct-2012 | 76.1 |
Nov-2012 | 75.8 |
Dec-2012 | 75.9 |
Jan-2013 | 75.6 |
Feb-2013 | 75.8 |
Mar-2013 | 75.9 |
Apr-2013 | 75.9 |
May-2013 | 76.0 |
Jun-2013 | 75.9 |
Jul-2013 | 76.0 |
Aug-2013 | 75.9 |
Sep-2013 | 76.0 |
Oct-2013 | 75.6 |
Nov-2013 | 76.0 |
Dec-2013 | 76.1 |
Jan-2014 | 76.5 |
Feb-2014 | 76.5 |
Mar-2014 | 76.6 |
Apr-2014 | 76.5 |
May-2014 | 76.4 |
Jun-2014 | 76.8 |
Jul-2014 | 76.7 |
Aug-2014 | 76.8 |
Sep-2014 | 76.8 |
Oct-2014 | 76.9 |
Nov-2014 | 76.9 |
Dec-2014 | 77.1 |
Jan-2015 | 77.2 |
Feb-2015 | 77.3 |
Mar-2015 | 77.2 |
Apr-2015 | 77.2 |
May-2015 | 77.2 |
Jun-2015 | 77.2 |
Jul-2015 | 77.1 |
Aug-2015 | 77.2 |
Sep-2015 | 77.3 |
Oct-2015 | 77.2 |
Nov-2015 | 77.4 |
Dec-2015 | 77.4 |
Jan-2016 | 77.7 |
Feb-2016 | 77.8 |
Mar-2016 | 78.0 |
Apr-2016 | 77.7 |
Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Population Survey public data
Wage growth held steady at 2.5 percent, in line with the past few months and slightly stronger than last week’s employment cost index report. Most observers believe that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in June—given that wage growth is below any reasonable target, this is a prudent move. Working people and their families are keenly aware of the fact that strong wage growth continues to be the lagging indicator in this recovery. Beyond fighting inflation (which is nowhere in sight), there’s little reason for the Fed to use interest rate hikes to control asset bubbles, so there’s no incentive for a rate increase in the near future.
We need to return to steady increases in LFPR and see stronger wage growth for a sustained period of time before we can say we’re nearing full employment and a healthy economy.
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