JOLTS Report is Evidence of an Economy Moving Sideways

Today’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report corroborates last week’s jobs report, which continued to provide evidence that the economy is at best moving at a slow jog, with meager wage growth and employment growth that’s just keeping up with the growth in the working age population. The rate of job openings increased in July, while the hires rate fell and the quits rate remains depressed.

There continues to be a significant gap between the number of people looking for jobs and the number of job openings. The figure below illustrates the overall improvement in the economy over the last five years, as the unemployment level continues to fall and job openings rise. In a tighter economy (like the one shown in the initial year of data), these levels would be much closer together. So it’s clear that there is still a significant amount slack in the economy. Furthermore, on top of the 8+ million unemployed workers warming the bench, there are still more than three million workers sitting in the stands with little hope to even get in the game.

JOLTS

Job openings levels and unemployment levels, December 2000-July 2015

Month Job Openings level Unemployment level
Dec-2000 4.934 5.634
Jan-2001 5.273 6.023
Feb-2001 4.706 6.089
Mar-2001 4.618 6.141
Apr-2001 4.668 6.271
May-2001 4.444 6.226
Jun-2001 4.232 6.484
Jul-2001 4.354 6.583
Aug-2001 4.095 7.042
Sep-2001 3.973 7.142
Oct-2001 3.594 7.694
Nov-2001 3.545 8.003
Dec-2001 3.586 8.258
Jan-2002 3.587 8.182
Feb-2002 3.412 8.215
Mar-2002 3.605 8.304
Apr-2002 3.357 8.599
May-2002 3.525 8.399
Jun-2002 3.325 8.393
Jul-2002 3.343 8.39
Aug-2002 3.462 8.304
Sep-2002 3.319 8.251
Oct-2002 3.502 8.307
Nov-2002 3.585 8.52
Dec-2002 3.074 8.64
Jan-2003 3.686 8.52
Feb-2003 3.402 8.618
Mar-2003 3.101 8.588
Apr-2003 3.182 8.842
May-2003 3.201 8.957
Jun-2003 3.356 9.266
Jul-2003 3.195 9.011
Aug-2003 3.239 8.896
Sep-2003 3.054 8.921
Oct-2003 3.196 8.732
Nov-2003 3.316 8.576
Dec-2003 3.334 8.317
Jan-2004 3.391 8.37
Feb-2004 3.437 8.167
Mar-2004 3.42 8.491
Apr-2004 3.466 8.17
May-2004 3.658 8.212
Jun-2004 3.384 8.286
Jul-2004 3.835 8.136
Aug-2004 3.578 7.99
Sep-2004 3.704 7.927
Oct-2004 3.779 8.061
Nov-2004 3.456 7.932
Dec-2004 3.846 7.934
Jan-2005 3.595 7.784
Feb-2005 3.842 7.98
Mar-2005 3.891 7.737
Apr-2005 4.115 7.672
May-2005 3.824 7.651
Jun-2005 4.018 7.524
Jul-2005 4.162 7.406
Aug-2005 4.085 7.345
Sep-2005 4.227 7.553
Oct-2005 4.23 7.453
Nov-2005 4.341 7.566
Dec-2005 4.249 7.279
Jan-2006 4.278 7.064
Feb-2006 4.308 7.184
Mar-2006 4.537 7.072
Apr-2006 4.495 7.12
May-2006 4.432 6.98
Jun-2006 4.331 7.001
Jul-2006 4.081 7.175
Aug-2006 4.411 7.091
Sep-2006 4.498 6.847
Oct-2006 4.454 6.727
Nov-2006 4.622 6.872
Dec-2006 4.552 6.762
Jan-2007 4.59 7.116
Feb-2007 4.481 6.927
Mar-2007 4.657 6.731
Apr-2007 4.534 6.85
May-2007 4.531 6.766
Jun-2007 4.639 6.979
Jul-2007 4.43 7.149
Aug-2007 4.508 7.067
Sep-2007 4.481 7.17
Oct-2007 4.278 7.237
Nov-2007 4.278 7.24
Dec-2007 4.323 7.645
Jan-2008 4.223 7.685
Feb-2008 4.039 7.497
Mar-2008 4.012 7.822
Apr-2008 3.85 7.637
May-2008 4 8.395
Jun-2008 3.67 8.575
Jul-2008 3.762 8.937
Aug-2008 3.584 9.438
Sep-2008 3.21 9.494
Oct-2008 3.273 10.074
Nov-2008 3.059 10.538
Dec-2008 3.049 11.286
Jan-2009 2.763 12.058
Feb-2009 2.794 12.898
Mar-2009 2.493 13.426
Apr-2009 2.271 13.853
May-2009 2.413 14.499
Jun-2009 2.388 14.707
Jul-2009 2.146 14.601
Aug-2009 2.294 14.814
Sep-2009 2.434 15.009
Oct-2009 2.376 15.352
Nov-2009 2.419 15.219
Dec-2009 2.49 15.098
Jan-2010 2.706 15.046
Feb-2010 2.561 15.113
Mar-2010 2.652 15.202
Apr-2010 3.097 15.325
May-2010 2.9 14.849
Jun-2010 2.728 14.474
Jul-2010 2.929 14.512
Aug-2010 2.869 14.648
Sep-2010 2.782 14.579
Oct-2010 3.026 14.516
Nov-2010 3.072 15.081
Dec-2010 2.909 14.348
Jan-2011 2.917 14.046
Feb-2011 3.065 13.828
Mar-2011 3.132 13.728
Apr-2011 3.099 13.956
May-2011 3.032 13.853
Jun-2011 3.194 13.958
Jul-2011 3.417 13.756
Aug-2011 3.138 13.806
Sep-2011 3.557 13.929
Oct-2011 3.422 13.599
Nov-2011 3.215 13.309
Dec-2011 3.527 13.071
Jan-2012 3.653 12.812
Feb-2012 3.517 12.828
Mar-2012 3.837 12.696
Apr-2012 3.627 12.636
May-2012 3.696 12.668
Jun-2012 3.785 12.688
Jul-2012 3.587 12.657
Aug-2012 3.637 12.449
Sep-2012 3.614 12.106
Oct-2012 3.729 12.141
Nov-2012 3.741 12.026
Dec-2012 3.64 12.272
Jan-2013 3.77 12.497
Feb-2013 4.023 11.967
Mar-2013 3.891 11.653
Apr-2013 3.84 11.735
May-2013 3.829 11.671
Jun-2013 3.864 11.736
Jul-2013 3.829 11.357
Aug-2013 3.893 11.241
Sep-2013 3.955 11.251
Oct-2013 4.076 11.161
Nov-2013 4.073 10.814
Dec-2013 3.977 10.376
Jan-2014 3.906 10.28
Feb-2014 4.160 10.387
Mar-2014 4.210 10.384
Apr-2014 4.417 9.696
May-2014 4.608 9.761
Jun-2014 4.710 9.453
Jul-2014 4.726 9.648
Aug-2014 4.925 9.568
Sep-2014 4.678 9.237
Oct-2014 4.849 8.983
Nov-2014 4.886 9.071
Dec-2014 4.877 8.688
Jan-2015 4.965 8.979
Feb-2015 5.144 8.705
Mar-2015 5.109 8.575
Apr-2015 5.334 8.549
May-2015 5.357 8.674
Jun-2015 5.323 8.299
Jul-2015 5.753 8.266

 

ChartData Download data

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Note: Shaded areas denote recessions.

Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and Current Population Survey

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Meanwhile, the figure below shows the hires, quits, and layoff rates through July 2015. The layoff rate shot up during the recession but recovered quickly and has been at pre-recession levels for more than three years. The fact that this trend continued in July is a good sign. That said, not only do layoffs need to come down before we see a full recovery in the labor market, but hiring also needs to pick up–the hires rate dipped slightly in July, and is still below where it was at the end of 2014.

JOLTS

Hires, quits, and layoff rates, December 2000-July 2015

Month Hires rate Layoffs rate Quits rate
Dec-2000 4.1% 1.4% 2.3%
Jan-2001 4.4% 1.6% 2.6%
Feb-2001 4.1% 1.4% 2.5%
Mar-2001 4.2% 1.6% 2.4%
Apr-2001 4.0% 1.5% 2.4%
May-2001 4.0% 1.5% 2.4%
Jun-2001 3.8% 1.5% 2.3%
Jul-2001 3.9% 1.5% 2.2%
Aug-2001 3.8% 1.4% 2.1%
Sep-2001 3.8% 1.6% 2.1%
Oct-2001 3.8% 1.7% 2.2%
Nov-2001 3.7% 1.6% 2.0%
Dec-2001 3.7% 1.4% 2.0%
Jan-2002 3.7% 1.4% 2.2%
Feb-2002 3.7% 1.5% 2.0%
Mar-2002 3.5% 1.4% 1.9%
Apr-2002 3.8% 1.5% 2.1%
May-2002 3.8% 1.5% 2.1%
Jun-2002 3.7% 1.4% 2.0%
Jul-2002 3.8% 1.5% 2.1%
Aug-2002 3.7% 1.4% 2.0%
Sep-2002 3.7% 1.4% 2.0%
Oct-2002 3.7% 1.4% 2.0%
Nov-2002 3.8% 1.5% 1.9%
Dec-2002 3.8% 1.5% 2.0%
Jan-2003 3.8% 1.5% 1.9%
Feb-2003 3.6% 1.5% 1.9%
Mar-2003 3.4% 1.4% 1.9%
Apr-2003 3.6% 1.6% 1.8%
May-2003 3.5% 1.5% 1.8%
Jun-2003 3.7% 1.6% 1.8%
Jul-2003 3.6% 1.6% 1.8%
Aug-2003 3.6% 1.5% 1.8%
Sep-2003 3.7% 1.5% 1.9%
Oct-2003 3.8% 1.4% 1.9%
Nov-2003 3.6% 1.4% 1.9%
Dec-2003 3.8% 1.5% 1.9%
Jan-2004 3.7% 1.5% 1.9%
Feb-2004 3.6% 1.4% 1.9%
Mar-2004 3.9% 1.4% 2.0%
Apr-2004 3.9% 1.5% 2.0%
May-2004 3.8% 1.4% 1.9%
Jun-2004 3.8% 1.4% 2.0%
Jul-2004 3.7% 1.4% 2.0%
Aug-2004 3.9% 1.5% 2.0%
Sep-2004 3.8% 1.4% 2.0%
Oct-2004 3.9% 1.4% 2.0%
Nov-2004 3.9% 1.5% 2.1%
Dec-2004 4.0% 1.5% 2.1%
Jan-2005 3.9% 1.4% 2.1%
Feb-2005 3.9% 1.4% 2.0%
Mar-2005 3.9% 1.5% 2.1%
Apr-2005 4.0% 1.4% 2.1%
May-2005 3.9% 1.4% 2.1%
Jun-2005 3.9% 1.5% 2.1%
Jul-2005 3.9% 1.4% 2.0%
Aug-2005 4.0% 1.4% 2.2%
Sep-2005 4.0% 1.4% 2.3%
Oct-2005 3.8% 1.3% 2.2%
Nov-2005 3.9% 1.2% 2.2%
Dec-2005 3.7% 1.3% 2.1%
Jan-2006 3.9% 1.3% 2.1%
Feb-2006 3.9% 1.3% 2.2%
Mar-2006 3.9% 1.2% 2.2%
Apr-2006 3.8% 1.3% 2.1%
May-2006 4.0% 1.4% 2.2%
Jun-2006 3.9% 1.2% 2.2%
Jul-2006 3.9% 1.3% 2.2%
Aug-2006 3.8% 1.2% 2.2%
Sep-2006 3.8% 1.3% 2.1%
Oct-2006 3.8% 1.3% 2.1%
Nov-2006 4.0% 1.3% 2.3%
Dec-2006 3.8% 1.3% 2.2%
Jan-2007 3.8% 1.2% 2.2%
Feb-2007 3.8% 1.3% 2.2%
Mar-2007 3.8% 1.3% 2.2%
Apr-2007 3.7% 1.3% 2.1%
May-2007 3.8% 1.3% 2.2%
Jun-2007 3.8% 1.3% 2.0%
Jul-2007 3.7% 1.3% 2.1%
Aug-2007 3.7% 1.3% 2.1%
Sep-2007 3.7% 1.5% 1.9%
Oct-2007 3.8% 1.4% 2.1%
Nov-2007 3.7% 1.4% 2.0%
Dec-2007 3.6% 1.3% 2.0%
Jan-2008 3.5% 1.3% 2.0%
Feb-2008 3.5% 1.4% 2.0%
Mar-2008 3.4% 1.3% 1.9%
Apr-2008 3.5% 1.3% 2.1%
May-2008 3.3% 1.3% 1.9%
Jun-2008 3.5% 1.5% 1.9%
Jul-2008 3.3% 1.4% 1.8%
Aug-2008 3.3% 1.6% 1.7%
Sep-2008 3.1% 1.4% 1.8%
Oct-2008 3.3% 1.6% 1.8%
Nov-2008 2.9% 1.6% 1.5%
Dec-2008 3.2% 1.8% 1.6%
Jan-2009 3.1% 1.9% 1.5%
Feb-2009 3.0% 1.9% 1.5%
Mar-2009 2.8% 1.8% 1.4%
Apr-2009 2.9% 2.0% 1.3%
May-2009 2.8% 1.6% 1.3%
Jun-2009 2.8% 1.6% 1.3%
Jul-2009 2.9% 1.7% 1.3%
Aug-2009 2.9% 1.6% 1.3%
Sep-2009 3.0% 1.6% 1.3%
Oct-2009 2.9% 1.5% 1.3%
Nov-2009 3.1% 1.4% 1.4%
Dec-2009 2.9% 1.5% 1.3%
Jan-2010 3.0% 1.4% 1.3%
Feb-2010 2.9% 1.4% 1.3%
Mar-2010 3.2% 1.4% 1.4%
Apr-2010 3.1% 1.3% 1.5%
May-2010 3.3% 1.3% 1.4%
Jun-2010 3.1% 1.5% 1.5%
Jul-2010 3.2% 1.6% 1.4%
Aug-2010 3.0% 1.4% 1.4%
Sep-2010 3.1% 1.4% 1.5%
Oct-2010 3.1% 1.3% 1.4%
Nov-2010 3.1% 1.4% 1.4%
Dec-2010 3.2% 1.4% 1.5%
Jan-2011 3.0% 1.3% 1.4%
Feb-2011 3.1% 1.3% 1.4%
Mar-2011 3.3% 1.3% 1.5%
Apr-2011 3.2% 1.3% 1.5%
May-2011 3.1% 1.3% 1.5%
Jun-2011 3.3% 1.4% 1.5%
Jul-2011 3.2% 1.3% 1.5%
Aug-2011 3.2% 1.3% 1.5%
Sep-2011 3.3% 1.3% 1.5%
Oct-2011 3.2% 1.3% 1.5%
Nov-2011 3.2% 1.3% 1.5%
Dec-2011 3.2% 1.3% 1.5%
Jan-2012 3.2% 1.3% 1.5%
Feb-2012 3.3% 1.3% 1.6%
Mar-2012 3.3% 1.3% 1.6%
Apr-2012 3.2% 1.4% 1.6%
May-2012 3.3% 1.4% 1.6%
Jun-2012 3.2% 1.3% 1.6%
Jul-2012 3.2% 1.2% 1.6%
Aug-2012 3.3% 1.4% 1.6%
Sep-2012 3.1% 1.3% 1.4%
Oct-2012 3.2% 1.3% 1.5%
Nov-2012 3.3% 1.3% 1.6%
Dec-2012 3.2% 1.1% 1.6%
Jan-2013 3.3% 1.2% 1.7%
Feb-2013 3.4% 1.2% 1.7%
Mar-2013 3.2% 1.3% 1.5%
Apr-2013 3.3% 1.3% 1.7%
May-2013 3.3% 1.3% 1.6%
Jun-2013 3.2% 1.2% 1.6%
Jul-2013 3.3% 1.2% 1.7%
Aug-2013 3.4% 1.2% 1.7%
Sep-2013 3.4% 1.3% 1.7%
Oct-2013 3.3% 1.1% 1.8%
Nov-2013 3.4% 1.1% 1.8%
Dec-2013 3.3% 1.2% 1.7%
Jan-2014 3.3% 1.3% 1.7%
Feb-2014 3.4% 1.2% 1.8%
Mar-2014 3.4% 1.2% 1.8%
Apr-2014 3.5% 1.2% 1.7%
May-2014 3.5% 1.2% 1.8%
Jun-2014 3.5% 1.2% 1.8%
Jul-2014 3.6% 1.3% 1.8%
Aug-2014 3.4% 1.2% 1.8%
Sep-2014 3.6% 1.2% 2.0%
Oct-2014 3.7% 1.2% 2.0%
Nov-2014 3.6% 1.1% 1.9%
Dec-2014 3.7% 1.2% 1.9%
Jan-2015 3.5% 1.2% 2.0%
Feb-2015 3.6% 1.2% 1.9%
Mar-2015 3.6% 1.3% 2.0%
Apr-2015 3.6% 1.3% 1.9%
May-2015 3.6% 1.2% 1.9%
Jun-2015 3.7% 1.3% 1.9%
Jul-2015 3.5% 1.1% 1.9%

 

ChartData Download data

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Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. The hires rate is the number of hires during the entire month as a percent of total employment. The layoff rate is the number of layoffs and discharges during the entire month as a percent of total employment. The quits rate is the number of quits during the entire month as a percent of total employment.

Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

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The voluntary quits rate held steady at 1.9 percent in July, where it has sat for most of the last six months as workers continue to be stuck in jobs that they would leave if they could. In July, the quits rate was still 9.2 percent lower than it was in 2007, before the recession began. A larger number of people voluntarily quitting their jobs would indicate a strong labor market—one in which workers are able to leave jobs that are not right for them and find new ones. Before long, we should look for a return to pre-recession levels of voluntary quits, which would mean that fewer workers are locked into jobs they would leave if they could. But, as with previous months, we are not there yet.

In this month’s JOLTS report, there do appear to be early signs of some sectoral tightening. Last year at this time, there were more unemployed workers than job openings in every sector. As you can see in the figure below, some sectors have seen improvements, particularly health care and social assistance. This within-sector tightening is a small sign of good news, but other sectors have seen little-to-no improvement in their job-seekers-to-job-openings ratio. There are, for example still 47 unemployed construction workers for every 10 constructions jobs. In other words, despite claims from some employers, there is no shortage of construction workers. (Of course, unemployed workers in one sector can sometimes find a job in a different sector, but the disproportionate numbers of job seekers in some sectors is still troubling.)

JOLTS

Unemployed and job openings, by industry (in millions)

Industry Unemployed Job openings
Professional and business services 0.9478 1.0333
Health care and social assistance 0.6590 0.8354
Retail trade 1.0251 0.5288
Accommodation and food services 0.9305 0.6388
Government 0.6135 0.4747
Finance and insurance 0.1889 0.2380
Durable goods manufacturing 0.4261 0.1951
Other services 0.3513 0.1714
Wholesale trade 0.1444 0.1673
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 0.3053 0.2001
Information 0.1220 0.1036
Construction 0.6582 0.1412
Nondurable goods manufacturing 0.2689 0.1236
Educational services 0.2292 0.0915
Real estate and rental and leasing 0.0918 0.0785
Arts, entertainment, and recreation 0.1999 0.0672
Mining and logging 0.0694 0.0222

 

ChartData Download data

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Note: Because the data are not seasonally adjusted, these are 12-month averages, August 2014–July 2015.

Source: EPI analysis of data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and the Current Population Survey

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In fact, while the market does appear to be improving for some types of unemployed workers, there are no significant worker shortages anywhere in the economy. While there has been a clear progress, it is also important to remember that a job opening when the labor market is weak often does not mean the same thing as a job opening when the labor market is strong. There is a wide range of “recruitment intensity” a company can put behind a job opening. If a firm is trying hard to fill an opening, it may increase the compensation package and/or scale back the required qualifications. On the other hand, if it is not trying very hard, it might hike up the required qualifications and/or offer a meager compensation package. Perhaps unsurprisingly, research shows that recruitment intensity is cyclical—it tends to be stronger when the labor market is strong, and weaker when the labor market is weak. This means that when a job opening goes unfilled and the labor market is weak, as it is today, companies may very well be holding out for an overly-qualified candidate at a cheap price.

Taken as a whole, these numbers demonstrate that the main problem in the labor market is a broad-based lack of demand for workers—not available workers lacking the skills needed for the sectors with job openings. This morning’s JOLTS report is further evidence that the economy has ways to go before it can be considered healthy. With Congress gridlocked, the most important policy lever we have at our disposal is interest rates controlled by the Federal Reserve. Given the evidence, when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month, they should continue to let the economy grow, and not do anything to slow down our recovery.