Table 1
Economic impact of the "fiscal obstacle course" relative to current law, 2013
| Fiscal obstacles | Budgetary cost (billions) |
Multiplier | Economic impact (billions) |
Economic impact (% GDP) | Employment impact (thousands) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal support following ARRA | |||||
| Continue the payroll tax cut | $115 | 1.25 | $144 | 0.9% | 1,090 |
| Continue EUC (UI) program |
39 | 1.52 | 59 | 0.4 | 448 |
| Continue ARRA expansion of refundable credits | 10 | 1.19 | 12 | 0.1 | 92 |
| Subtotal | 165 | 1.31 | 216 | 1.4 | 1,631 |
| Budget Control Act | |||||
| Deactivate sequestration | $78 | 1.40 | $110 | 0.7% | 829 |
| Undo phase one discretionary spending caps | 50 | 1.40 | 70 | 0.4 | 529 |
| Subtotal | 128 | 1.40 | 180 | 1.1 | 1,357 |
| Bush-era tax cuts | |||||
| Continue upper-income Bush tax cuts | $52 | 0.26 | $14 | 0.1% | 102 |
| Continue middle-income Bush tax cuts | 84 | 0.35 | 29 | 0.2 | 223 |
| Continue lower-income Bush tax cut and credits* | 55 | 0.69 | 38 | 0.2 | 288 |
| Continue estate and gift tax cuts** | 12 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Subtotal | 202 | 0.40 | 81 | 0.5 | 613 |
| Other expiring (current policy) provisions | |||||
| Continue the AMT patch | $114 | 0.53 | $60 | 0.4% | 455 |
| Continue the business tax extenders | 109 | 0.27 | 29 | 0.2 | 222 |
| Continue the Medicare “doc fix” | 14 | 1.01 | 14 | 0.1 | 106 |
| Subtotal | 237 | 0.44 | 104 | 0.7 | 784 |
| Fiscal obstacle course total | $732 | 0.79 | $581 | 3.7% | 4,385 |
* Includes the 10% tax bracket and modifications to the Child Tax Credit
** Estate tax cuts as modified by the Tax Relief Act of 2010
Source: Authors' analysis of Congressional Budget Office (2011a, b; 2012b, d, e, f) and Moody's Analytics (Zandi 2011a, b)
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