Sustained lower unemployment would help shrink Black–white wage gaps: Black–white median wage gap, actual and under three counterfactual scenarios, 1973–2019
| Actual | 1.0 ppt. lower average unemployment | 1.5 ppt. lower average unemployment | 2.0 ppt. lower average unemployment | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1973 | 28.6% | 28.6% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| 1974 | 24.8% | 24.5% | 24.3% | 24.2% |
| 1975 | 23.7% | 23.1% | 22.8% | 22.5% |
| 1976 | 23.4% | 22.5% | 22.0% | 21.6% |
| 1977 | 23.2% | 22.0% | 21.4% | 20.8% |
| 1978 | 25.1% | 23.6% | 22.9% | 22.1% |
| 1979 | 19.6% | 17.9% | 17.1% | 16.3% |
| 1980 | 20.9% | 18.9% | 17.9% | 16.9% |
| 1981 | 21.1% | 18.8% | 17.6% | 16.5% |
| 1982 | 24.0% | 21.3% | 19.9% | 18.6% |
| 1983 | 22.5% | 19.5% | 18.1% | 16.6% |
| 1984 | 24.2% | 20.9% | 19.3% | 17.7% |
| 1985 | 23.9% | 20.3% | 18.5% | 16.8% |
| 1986 | 24.9% | 21.0% | 19.1% | 17.2% |
| 1987 | 24.4% | 20.2% | 18.1% | 16.1% |
| 1988 | 22.5% | 18.1% | 16.0% | 13.9% |
| 1989 | 25.6% | 20.7% | 18.4% | 16.1% |
| 1990 | 25.2% | 20.0% | 17.6% | 15.2% |
| 1991 | 28.4% | 22.8% | 20.1% | 17.5% |
| 1992 | 25.8% | 20.0% | 17.2% | 14.5% |
| 1993 | 24.8% | 18.7% | 15.9% | 13.1% |
| 1994 | 25.1% | 18.8% | 15.8% | 12.8% |
| 1995 | 26.3% | 19.6% | 16.4% | 13.3% |
| 1996 | 27.8% | 20.7% | 17.3% | 14.1% |
| 1997 | 27.3% | 20.0% | 16.5% | 13.1% |
| 1998 | 25.6% | 18.0% | 14.5% | 11.1% |
| 1999 | 24.4% | 16.7% | 13.0% | 9.5% |
| 2000 | 26.2% | 18.0% | 14.2% | 10.5% |
| 2001 | 29.3% | 20.6% | 16.5% | 12.6% |
| 2002 | 27.1% | 18.3% | 14.1% | 10.2% |
| 2003 | 25.3% | 16.3% | 12.1% | 8.1% |
| 2004 | 24.8% | 15.6% | 11.3% | 7.2% |
| 2005 | 26.7% | 17.1% | 12.6% | 8.3% |
| 2006 | 25.9% | 16.1% | 11.5% | 7.1% |
| 2007 | 28.7% | 18.3% | 13.4% | 8.8% |
| 2008 | 30.0% | 19.2% | 14.2% | 9.4% |
| 2009 | 27.1% | 16.3% | 11.3% | 6.5% |
| 2010 | 26.9% | 15.8% | 10.7% | 5.8% |
| 2011 | 28.5% | 16.9% | 11.6% | 6.6% |
| 2012 | 32.7% | 20.4% | 14.8% | 9.4% |
| 2013 | 29.1% | 16.9% | 11.3% | 6.0% |
| 2014 | 31.8% | 19.0% | 13.2% | 7.6% |
| 2015 | 34.4% | 21.1% | 15.0% | 9.2% |
| 2016 | 29.8% | 16.6% | 10.6% | 5.0% |
| 2017 | 33.8% | 20.0% | 13.7% | 7.7% |
| 2018 | 36.4% | 22.0% | 15.4% | 9.2% |
| 2019 | 32.2% | 18.0% | 11.5% | 5.4% |
Notes: The wage gap is how much less in percent terms the median Black worker earns in hourly wages than the median white worker. Regression coefficients from Figure B are used to construct counterfactual wage growth based on lower average unemployment rates over the entire period, and the median wages of Black workers are compared with the median wages of white workers to estimate the gaps. The higher wage growth implied in the counterfactual scenarios is distributed evenly over each year in the figure.
Source: Author’s analysis using data from the State of Working America Data Library (EPI 2021b) and the regression coefficients reported in Figure B.
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