Workers across the country have already lost their jobs as businesses temporarily shutter in response to the social distancing measures necessary to stop the spread of coronavirus—a trend which can be mitigated if policymakers act quickly. Expectations of just how many jobs will be lost are rapidly evolving. Goldman Sachs forecasts that the economy will contract by 2.5% over the first half of this year—which we estimate will translate into a loss of 3 million jobs by June. An even bleaker forecast from Deutsche Bank, which is in line with projections from JPMorgan, suggests that 7.5 million jobs will be lost by the summer. In this post, we attempt to predict the state-level impacts of these losses using the midpoint of these two forecasts—an estimated 5.25 million jobs lost.

We have distributed this projected job loss across states to provide a sense of the magnitude of the state-level shock, shown in Figure A. The coronavirus shock that is causing this recession is broad-based; the effects will likely be felt in every industry and geography. Still, workers in certain industries will be disproportionately affected—in particular, workers in food service, accommodations, and brick-and-mortar retail. As a result, states where these industries make up a larger share of employment, such as Florida, Hawaii, and Nevada, will be particularly hard hit. In Nevada, where two out of every five jobs are in leisure, hospitality, or retail, the state will likely lose 5.3% of private-sector jobs.

This disproportionate impact matters for our estimation of job loss by state. To capture both the expansive effects of this recession and the outsize impact on the leisure, hospitality, and retail industries, we provide three measures of projected state job loss: one that distributes the national estimate based on each state’s share of total private employment; one based instead on their share of leisure, hospitality, and retail employment; and the average of those two measures. Figure A displays the average measure and Table 1 shows all three job-loss projections. Both the figure and table also show the leisure, hospitality, and retail industries’ share of private-sector employment and the projected job losses as a share of private-sector employment in each state. The data presented here reflect our most recent total job-loss estimate of 5.25 million. As our understanding of the situation evolves, you can use our methodology to distribute other estimates of total job loss across states by inputing a national estimate into this spreadsheet.

State policymakers must play a critical role in responding to this crisis. They can take steps now that will reduce job losses and mitigate harm to unemployed and other vulnerable populations, while an adequate federal response is worked out. For example, they can expand access to unemployment insurance (UI) by waiving job-search requirements and waiting periods, bolster direct income support programs such as Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF), increase funding for direct service providers such as homeless shelters and food banks, and use their emergency powers to place a moratorium on evictions and utility shut-offs. Stopping a recession at this point is likely impossible, but actions such as these can soften the blow and help many whose lives are already being upended.