Table 3

Job changes stemming from spending and tax cuts resulting from ACA repeal, by state

Jobs-losses from spending cuts Job-gains from tax cuts Net employment effects
Medicaid Premium + cost-sharing subsidies Total Total As a number As a share of state under-65 population
Alabama* 3,903 9,241 13,144 1,684 -11,459 -0.3%
Alaska 1,541 1,466 3,007 304 -2,702 -0.4%
Arizona 37,026 7,509 44,535 2,553 -41,982 -0.8%
Arkansas 9,058 1,663 10,721 984 -9,737 -0.4%
California 115,973 47,447 163,420 21,744 -141,676 -0.4%
Colorado 36,118 1,912 38,030 2,812 -35,217 -0.8%
Connecticut 12,471 3,352 15,823 2,987 -12,836 -0.4%
Delaware 3,197 694 3,891 395 -3,497 -0.5%
District of Columbia 2,002 60 2,062 595 -1,466 -0.3%
Florida* 21,760 52,453 74,213 9,584 -64,629 -0.4%
Georgia* 13,724 15,524 29,249 4,159 -25,090 -0.3%
Hawaii 4,407 411 4,818 519 -4,299 -0.4%
Idaho* 2,995 2,846 5,841 531 -5,310 -0.4%
Illinois 44,269 9,627 53,896 6,835 -47,060 -0.4%
Indiana 16,504 3,969 20,473 2,361 -18,111 -0.3%
Iowa 6,423 1,543 7,966 1,213 -6,753 -0.3%
Kansas* 2,059 3,335 5,394 1,245 -4,148 -0.2%
Kentucky 55,214 2,220 57,434 1,485 -55,949 -1.5%
Louisiana 26,786 3,137 29,924 1,861 -28,063 -0.7%
Maine* 590 3,326 3,916 482 -3,435 -0.3%
Maryland 27,478 3,300 30,778 3,379 -27,398 -0.5%
Massachusetts 20,363 4,200 24,564 4,923 -19,640 -0.3%
Michigan 36,190 6,438 42,628 3,908 -38,720 -0.5%
Minnesota 17,181 1,414 18,595 2,790 -15,806 -0.3%
Mississippi* 4,508 4,072 8,579 896 -7,684 -0.3%
Missouri* 6,394 10,047 16,441 2,364 -14,077 -0.3%
Montana 10,052 934 10,986 387 -10,599 -1.3%
Nebraska* 173 3,403 3,576 788 -2,788 -0.2%
Nevada 14,804 2,675 17,479 1,147 -16,332 -0.7%
New Hampshire 4,738 737 5,475 675 -4,801 -0.4%
New Jersey 62,832 5,203 68,036 6,492 -61,544 -0.8%
New Mexico 31,697 797 32,494 641 -31,853 -1.8%
New York 57,115 7,638 64,753 12,550 -52,203 -0.3%
North Carolina* 23,532 29,334 52,865 3,941 -48,925 -0.6%
North Dakota 2,434 463 2,897 437 -2,460 -0.4%
Ohio 50,375 4,586 54,962 4,619 -50,343 -0.5%
Oklahoma* 1,944 5,898 7,842 1,488 -6,354 -0.2%
Oregon 41,432 2,537 43,970 1,621 -42,348 -1.3%
Pennsylvania 27,117 10,244 37,361 5,974 -31,387 -0.3%
Rhode Island 8,007 514 8,521 486 -8,036 -0.9%
South Carolina* 1,267 8,152 9,419 1,726 -7,693 -0.2%
South Dakota* 302 900 1,203 377 -825 -0.1%
Tennessee* 18,146 8,281 26,426 2,549 -23,877 -0.4%
Texas* 18,866 34,769 53,634 13,084 -40,550 -0.2%
Utah* 1,671 2,469 4,139 1,036 -3,104 -0.1%
Vermont 2,463 789 3,251 260 -2,991 -0.6%
Virginia* 2,938 11,778 14,716 4,473 -10,243 -0.1%
Washington 44,644 3,643 48,287 3,633 -44,654 -0.7%
West Virginia 14,560 1,406 15,965 554 -15,412 -1.0%
Wisconsin* 2,261 8,366 10,627 2,337 -8,290 -0.2%
Wyoming* 144 1,303 1,447 278 -1,168 -0.2%
Totals 971,650 358,024 1,329,674 154,151 -1,175,524 -0.49%

* Medicaid non-expansion states

Source: Based on data from Table 1 as well as multipliers from Bivens and Fieldhouse (2012) and Chodorow-Reich et al. (2012) and methods outlined in Bivens (2014), as described in the text and the technical appendix

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