The AHCA-but-worse plan should not be passed by the House today
A vote in favor of the American Health Care Act (AHCA) today would be a vote to make the vast majority of Americans poorer, less healthy, and more financially insecure. The AHCA would cost 24 million Americans their health insurance coverage. The majority (14 million) would lose it to breathtakingly large cuts (almost $900 billion over the next decade) to the vital Medicaid program. Further, 7 million Americans would lose the coverage they get through their employer if AHCA passes.
Costs would skyrocket for those who still needed coverage in the nongroup market. A 64 year-old making 175 percent of the federal poverty line would pay $12,900 more each year for the health insurance plan’s premiums under AHCA, but would also face deductibles and co-pays that would cost thousands more than they do currently. For the entire nongroup market, out-of-pocket costs after premiums would rise by $25 billion each year by 2026 if AHCA is passed.
On top of this severe degradation of health and financial security, the AHCA would also drag on job growth in coming years. This drag would occur because the AHCA cuts to Medicaid and insurance subsidies reduce growth in economic activity and job creation far more powerfully than the AHCA tax cuts boost this growth. By 2022, this drag could lower employment by 1.8 million unless some countervailing macroeconomic boost neutralized the AHCA job losses. This drag on job growth would felt in nearly every congressional district.
How many jobs could the AHCA cost in your congressional district?: Potential fewer jobs by congressional district due to drag on growth from the AHCA, 2017–2022
State | District | Representative | 2019 potential job loss | 2020 potential job loss | 2021 potential job loss | 2022 potential job loss |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 1 | Bradley Byrne | 468 | 1,229 | 1,696 | 1,820 |
Alabama | 2 | Martha Roby | 375 | 1,001 | 1,384 | 1,505 |
Alabama | 3 | Mike Rogers | 404 | 1,071 | 1,478 | 1,613 |
Alabama | 4 | Robert B. Aderholt | 429 | 1,108 | 1,522 | 1,647 |
Alabama | 5 | Mo Brooks | 307 | 910 | 1,287 | 1,376 |
Alabama | 6 | Gary J. Palmer | 174 | 662 | 974 | 1,032 |
Alabama | 7 | Terri A. Sewell | 528 | 1,338 | 1,827 | 2,006 |
Alaska | Statewide | Don Young | 433 | 1,416 | 2,018 | 2,324 |
Arizona | 1 | Tom O’Halleran | 1,875 | 4,911 | 6,719 | 7,746 |
Arizona | 2 | Martha McSally | 1,377 | 3,696 | 5,085 | 5,838 |
Arizona | 3 | Raúl M. Grijalva | 2,182 | 5,606 | 7,640 | 8,789 |
Arizona | 4 | Paul A. Gosar | 1,498 | 3,885 | 5,310 | 6,074 |
Arizona | 5 | Andy Biggs | 828 | 2,375 | 3,313 | 3,778 |
Arizona | 6 | David Schweikert | 795 | 2,571 | 3,658 | 4,214 |
Arizona | 7 | Ruben Gallego | 3,171 | 8,148 | 11,101 | 12,811 |
Arizona | 8 | Trent Franks | 958 | 2,600 | 3,588 | 4,084 |
Arizona | 9 | Kyrsten Sinema | 1,592 | 4,314 | 5,946 | 6,841 |
Arkansas | 1 | Eric A. “Rick” Crawford | 1,085 | 2,815 | 3,849 | 4,390 |
Arkansas | 2 | J. French Hill | 777 | 2,127 | 2,941 | 3,342 |
Arkansas | 3 | Steve Womack | 869 | 2,380 | 3,290 | 3,739 |
Arkansas | 4 | Bruce Westerman | 1,052 | 2,738 | 3,746 | 4,275 |
California | 1 | Doug LaMalfa | 1,096 | 2,880 | 3,954 | 4,460 |
California | 2 | Jared Huffman | 502 | 1,838 | 2,670 | 3,013 |
California | 3 | John Garamendi | 886 | 2,440 | 3,380 | 3,830 |
California | 4 | Tom McClintock | 553 | 1,722 | 2,444 | 2,718 |
California | 5 | Mike Thompson | 687 | 2,041 | 2,871 | 3,223 |
California | 6 | Doris O. Matsui | 1,351 | 3,540 | 4,852 | 5,517 |
California | 7 | Ami Bera | 725 | 2,093 | 2,928 | 3,293 |
California | 8 | Paul Cook | 1,262 | 3,254 | 4,447 | 5,036 |
California | 9 | Jerry McNerney | 1,122 | 2,988 | 4,110 | 4,655 |
California | 10 | Jeff Denham | 1,072 | 2,824 | 3,878 | 4,382 |
California | 11 | Mark DeSaulnier | 320 | 1,494 | 2,235 | 2,538 |
California | 12 | Nancy Pelosi | 76 | 1,283 | 2,065 | 2,370 |
California | 13 | Barbara Lee | 772 | 2,483 | 3,536 | 4,009 |
California | 14 | Jackie Speier | 1 | 802 | 1,329 | 1,509 |
California | 15 | Eric Swalwell | 197 | 1,159 | 1,777 | 1,981 |
California | 16 | Jim Costa | 1,785 | 4,574 | 6,235 | 7,128 |
California | 17 | Ro Khanna | 63 | 707 | 1,219 | 1,379 |
California | 18 | Anna G. Eshoo | 543 | 21 | 437 | 539 |
California | 19 | Zoe Lofgren | 484 | 1,754 | 2,544 | 2,883 |
California | 20 | Jimmy Panetta | 942 | 2,623 | 3,643 | 4,107 |
California | 21 | David G. Valadao | 1,658 | 4,250 | 5,793 | 6,635 |
California | 22 | Devin Nunes | 1,144 | 3,075 | 4,235 | 4,829 |
California | 23 | Kevin McCarthy | 1,039 | 2,800 | 3,859 | 4,392 |
California | 24 | Salud O. Carbajal | 834 | 2,405 | 3,364 | 3,786 |
California | 25 | Stephen Knight | 781 | 2,270 | 3,180 | 3,561 |
California | 26 | Julia Brownley | 585 | 1,878 | 2,678 | 2,992 |
California | 27 | Judy Chu | 585 | 1,914 | 2,737 | 3,064 |
California | 28 | Adam B. Schiff | 726 | 2,332 | 3,321 | 3,752 |
California | 29 | Tony Cárdenas | 1,405 | 3,589 | 4,897 | 5,528 |
California | 30 | Brad Sherman | 518 | 1,857 | 2,690 | 3,025 |
California | 31 | Pete Aguilar | 1,173 | 3,112 | 4,277 | 4,852 |
California | 32 | Grace F. Napolitano | 1,018 | 2,643 | 3,622 | 4,048 |
California | 33 | Ted Lieu | 310 | 486 | 1,034 | 1,191 |
California | 34 | vacant | 1,702 | 4,385 | 5,990 | 6,803 |
California | 35 | Norma J. Torres | 1,202 | 3,065 | 4,181 | 4,719 |
California | 36 | Raul Ruiz | 1,208 | 3,219 | 4,429 | 5,017 |
California | 37 | Karen Bass | 1,152 | 3,263 | 4,543 | 5,156 |
California | 38 | Linda T. Sánchez | 892 | 2,354 | 3,239 | 3,607 |
California | 39 | Edward R. Royce | 549 | 1,768 | 2,524 | 2,809 |
California | 40 | Lucille Roybal-Allard | 1,766 | 4,465 | 6,075 | 6,892 |
California | 41 | Mark Takano | 1,290 | 3,338 | 4,566 | 5,170 |
California | 42 | Ken Calvert | 664 | 1,862 | 2,593 | 2,888 |
California | 43 | Maxine Waters | 1,270 | 3,340 | 4,585 | 5,176 |
California | 44 | Nanette Diaz Barragán | 1,532 | 3,886 | 5,293 | 5,985 |
California | 45 | Mimi Walters | 175 | 1,191 | 1,846 | 2,060 |
California | 46 | J. Luis Correa | 1,262 | 3,232 | 4,414 | 4,960 |
California | 47 | Alan S. Lowenthal | 1,026 | 2,827 | 3,919 | 4,410 |
California | 48 | Dana Rohrabacher | 294 | 1,447 | 2,180 | 2,443 |
California | 49 | Darrell E. Issa | 386 | 1,590 | 2,349 | 2,631 |
California | 50 | Duncan Hunter | 920 | 2,509 | 3,472 | 3,883 |
California | 51 | Juan Vargas | 1,618 | 4,061 | 5,522 | 6,205 |
California | 52 | Scott H. Peters | 258 | 1,305 | 1,973 | 2,201 |
California | 53 | Susan A. Davis | 897 | 2,469 | 3,424 | 3,830 |
Colorado | 1 | Diana DeGette | 2,344 | 6,472 | 8,944 | 10,362 |
Colorado | 2 | Jared Polis | 1,597 | 4,573 | 6,368 | 7,344 |
Colorado | 3 | Scott R. Tipton | 2,339 | 6,134 | 8,395 | 9,669 |
Colorado | 4 | Ken Buck | 1,585 | 4,408 | 6,103 | 7,055 |
Colorado | 5 | Doug Lamborn | 1,722 | 4,656 | 6,408 | 7,421 |
Colorado | 6 | Mike Coffman | 1,449 | 4,134 | 5,750 | 6,656 |
Colorado | 7 | Ed Perlmutter | 1,743 | 4,705 | 6,476 | 7,482 |
Connecticut | 1 | John B. Larson | 982 | 2,879 | 4,029 | 4,616 |
Connecticut | 2 | Joe Courtney | 632 | 1,952 | 2,760 | 3,136 |
Connecticut | 3 | Rosa L. DeLauro | 953 | 2,768 | 3,869 | 4,426 |
Connecticut | 4 | James A. Himes | 145 | 1,504 | 2,372 | 2,784 |
Connecticut | 5 | Elizabeth H. Esty | 853 | 2,626 | 3,706 | 4,249 |
Delaware | Statewide | Lisa Blunt Rochester | 1,202 | 3,381 | 4,698 | 5,362 |
DC | Statewide | Eleanor Holmes Norton | 303 | 1,542 | 2,321 | 2,691 |
Florida | 1 | Matt Gaetz | 557 | 1,482 | 2,051 | 2,208 |
Florida | 2 | Neal P. Dunn | 652 | 1,696 | 2,333 | 2,533 |
Florida | 3 | Ted S. Yoho | 699 | 1,798 | 2,469 | 2,667 |
Florida | 4 | John H. Rutherford | 574 | 1,563 | 2,177 | 2,309 |
Florida | 5 | Al Lawson, Jr. | 907 | 2,234 | 3,034 | 3,319 |
Florida | 6 | Ron DeSantis | 777 | 2,037 | 2,813 | 2,983 |
Florida | 7 | Stephanie N. Murphy | 845 | 2,176 | 2,998 | 3,147 |
Florida | 8 | Bill Posey | 720 | 1,862 | 2,565 | 2,722 |
Florida | 9 | Darren Soto | 1,096 | 2,650 | 3,597 | 3,817 |
Florida | 10 | Val Butler Demings | 969 | 2,462 | 3,383 | 3,550 |
Florida | 11 | Daniel Webster | 807 | 1,983 | 2,699 | 2,879 |
Florida | 12 | Gus M. Bilirakis | 639 | 1,702 | 2,361 | 2,492 |
Florida | 13 | Charlie Crist | 689 | 1,812 | 2,506 | 2,653 |
Florida | 14 | Kathy Castor | 808 | 2,107 | 2,903 | 3,136 |
Florida | 15 | Dennis A. Ross | 678 | 1,773 | 2,446 | 2,615 |
Florida | 16 | Vern Buchanan | 612 | 1,677 | 2,339 | 2,477 |
Florida | 17 | Thomas J. Rooney | 788 | 1,953 | 2,663 | 2,853 |
Florida | 18 | Brian J. Mast | 807 | 2,168 | 3,013 | 3,155 |
Florida | 19 | Francis Rooney | 671 | 1,897 | 2,660 | 2,813 |
Florida | 20 | Alcee L. Hastings | 1,533 | 3,616 | 4,880 | 5,170 |
Florida | 21 | Lois Frankel | 910 | 2,374 | 3,284 | 3,411 |
Florida | 22 | Theodore E. Deutch | 1,024 | 2,775 | 3,868 | 4,028 |
Florida | 23 | Debbie Wasserman Schultz | 1,120 | 2,927 | 4,050 | 4,207 |
Florida | 24 | Frederica S. Wilson | 1,717 | 4,082 | 5,522 | 5,828 |
Florida | 25 | Mario Diaz-Balart | 1,375 | 3,310 | 4,494 | 4,710 |
Florida | 26 | Carlos Curbelo | 1,482 | 3,544 | 4,808 | 5,013 |
Florida | 27 | Ileana Ros-Lehtinen | 1,468 | 3,697 | 5,070 | 5,321 |
Georgia | 1 | Earl L. “Buddy” Carter | 682 | 1,773 | 2,439 | 2,653 |
Georgia | 2 | Sanford D. Bishop, Jr. | 761 | 1,946 | 2,660 | 2,961 |
Georgia | 3 | A. Drew Ferguson, IV | 561 | 1,512 | 2,095 | 2,275 |
Georgia | 4 | Henry C. “Hank” Johnson, Jr. | 918 | 2,285 | 3,117 | 3,348 |
Georgia | 5 | John Lewis | 751 | 2,122 | 2,966 | 3,241 |
Georgia | 6 | vacant | 81 | 876 | 1,402 | 1,473 |
Georgia | 7 | Rob Woodall | 745 | 2,006 | 2,789 | 2,940 |
Georgia | 8 | Austin Scott | 633 | 1,643 | 2,254 | 2,502 |
Georgia | 9 | Doug Collins | 679 | 1,755 | 2,409 | 2,624 |
Georgia | 10 | Jody B. Hice | 669 | 1,736 | 2,385 | 2,606 |
Georgia | 11 | Barry Loudermilk | 438 | 1,395 | 1,997 | 2,131 |
Georgia | 12 | Rick W. Allen | 751 | 1,928 | 2,640 | 2,907 |
Georgia | 13 | David Scott | 843 | 2,112 | 2,886 | 3,106 |
Georgia | 14 | Tom Graves | 636 | 1,613 | 2,206 | 2,413 |
Hawaii | 1 | Colleen Hanabusa | 422 | 1,445 | 2,071 | 2,424 |
Hawaii | 2 | Tulsi Gabbard | 866 | 2,463 | 3,424 | 3,965 |
Idaho | 1 | Raúl R. Labrador | 1,094 | 2,743 | 3,743 | 4,069 |
Idaho | 2 | Michael K. Simpson | 1,084 | 2,757 | 3,773 | 4,113 |
Illinois | 1 | Bobby L. Rush | 1,376 | 3,656 | 5,021 | 5,744 |
Illinois | 2 | Robin L. Kelly | 1,481 | 3,850 | 5,264 | 6,023 |
Illinois | 3 | Daniel Lipinski | 821 | 2,289 | 3,177 | 3,606 |
Illinois | 4 | Luis V. Gutiérrez | 1,593 | 4,132 | 5,646 | 6,464 |
Illinois | 5 | Mike Quigley | 354 | 1,574 | 2,339 | 2,691 |
Illinois | 6 | Peter J. Roskam | 9 | 722 | 1,202 | 1,358 |
Illinois | 7 | Danny K. Davis | 1,480 | 4,271 | 5,955 | 6,875 |
Illinois | 8 | Raja Krishnamoorthi | 766 | 2,126 | 2,951 | 3,330 |
Illinois | 9 | Janice D. Schakowsky | 501 | 1,860 | 2,701 | 3,101 |
Illinois | 10 | Bradley Scott Schneider | 377 | 1,552 | 2,286 | 2,609 |
Illinois | 11 | Bill Foster | 674 | 1,994 | 2,799 | 3,173 |
Illinois | 12 | Mike Bost | 1,238 | 3,265 | 4,476 | 5,134 |
Illinois | 13 | Rodney Davis | 1,146 | 3,092 | 4,258 | 4,891 |
Illinois | 14 | Randy Hultgren | 327 | 1,255 | 1,837 | 2,066 |
Illinois | 15 | John Shimkus | 1,053 | 2,770 | 3,798 | 4,328 |
Illinois | 16 | Adam Kinzinger | 857 | 2,303 | 3,173 | 3,604 |
Illinois | 17 | Cheri Bustos | 1,259 | 3,267 | 4,466 | 5,105 |
Illinois | 18 | Darin LaHood | 642 | 1,864 | 2,605 | 2,974 |
Indiana | 1 | Peter J. Visclosky | 863 | 2,305 | 3,173 | 3,594 |
Indiana | 2 | Jackie Walorski | 874 | 2,297 | 3,152 | 3,557 |
Indiana | 3 | Jim Banks | 769 | 2,050 | 2,822 | 3,184 |
Indiana | 4 | Todd Rokita | 732 | 1,953 | 2,690 | 3,030 |
Indiana | 5 | Susan W. Brooks | 393 | 1,380 | 1,994 | 2,230 |
Indiana | 6 | Luke Messer | 827 | 2,165 | 2,968 | 3,354 |
Indiana | 7 | André Carson | 1,284 | 3,295 | 4,496 | 5,107 |
Indiana | 8 | Larry Bucshon | 799 | 2,091 | 2,868 | 3,226 |
Indiana | 9 | Trey Hollingsworth | 806 | 2,145 | 2,952 | 3,328 |
Iowa | 1 | Rod Blum | 542 | 1,538 | 2,140 | 2,439 |
Iowa | 2 | David Loebsack | 675 | 1,894 | 2,630 | 3,011 |
Iowa | 3 | David Young | 507 | 1,546 | 2,181 | 2,489 |
Iowa | 4 | Steve King | 611 | 1,704 | 2,363 | 2,701 |
Kansas | 1 | Roger W. Marshall | 351 | 959 | 1,332 | 1,448 |
Kansas | 2 | Lynn Jenkins | 386 | 1,041 | 1,443 | 1,566 |
Kansas | 3 | Kevin Yoder | 170 | 767 | 1,153 | 1,218 |
Kansas | 4 | vacant | 343 | 968 | 1,353 | 1,466 |
Kentucky | 1 | James Comer | 3,623 | 9,361 | 12,764 | 14,783 |
Kentucky | 2 | Brett Guthrie | 3,172 | 8,232 | 11,235 | 13,005 |
Kentucky | 3 | John A. Yarmuth | 3,086 | 8,156 | 11,172 | 12,952 |
Kentucky | 4 | Thomas Massie | 2,495 | 6,627 | 9,088 | 10,524 |
Kentucky | 5 | Harold Rogers | 4,920 | 12,672 | 17,264 | 20,016 |
Kentucky | 6 | Andy Barr | 3,459 | 9,065 | 12,395 | 14,367 |
Louisiana | 1 | Steve Scalise | 1,376 | 3,743 | 5,173 | 5,842 |
Louisiana | 2 | Cedric L. Richmond | 2,632 | 6,759 | 9,221 | 10,510 |
Louisiana | 3 | Clay Higgins | 1,693 | 4,490 | 6,165 | 7,041 |
Louisiana | 4 | Mike Johnson | 1,931 | 5,035 | 6,888 | 7,885 |
Louisiana | 5 | Ralph Lee Abraham | 2,264 | 5,834 | 7,961 | 9,108 |
Louisiana | 6 | Garret Graves | 1,422 | 3,825 | 5,270 | 5,993 |
Maine | 1 | Chellie Pingree | 424 | 1,177 | 1,649 | 1,704 |
Maine | 2 | Bruce Poliquin | 553 | 1,355 | 1,848 | 1,933 |
Maryland | 1 | Andy Harris | 1,172 | 3,334 | 4,638 | 5,339 |
Maryland | 2 | C. A. Dutch Ruppersberger | 1,552 | 4,199 | 5,784 | 6,659 |
Maryland | 3 | John P. Sarbanes | 794 | 2,646 | 3,780 | 4,373 |
Maryland | 4 | Anthony G. Brown | 1,042 | 3,059 | 4,280 | 4,929 |
Maryland | 5 | Steny H. Hoyer | 650 | 2,184 | 3,123 | 3,614 |
Maryland | 6 | John K. Delaney | 942 | 2,987 | 4,235 | 4,879 |
Maryland | 7 | Elijah E. Cummings | 1,974 | 5,499 | 7,613 | 8,817 |
Maryland | 8 | Jamie Raskin | 315 | 1,741 | 2,642 | 3,059 |
Massachusetts | 1 | Richard E. Neal | 1,258 | 3,365 | 4,632 | 5,257 |
Massachusetts | 2 | James P. McGovern | 920 | 2,630 | 3,669 | 4,154 |
Massachusetts | 3 | Niki Tsongas | 793 | 2,466 | 3,490 | 3,964 |
Massachusetts | 4 | Joseph P. Kennedy, III | 107 | 1,098 | 1,739 | 1,976 |
Massachusetts | 5 | Katherine M. Clark | 236 | 1,391 | 2,126 | 2,423 |
Massachusetts | 6 | Seth Moulton | 391 | 1,563 | 2,298 | 2,594 |
Massachusetts | 7 | Michael E. Capuano | 1,528 | 4,261 | 5,906 | 6,772 |
Massachusetts | 8 | Stephen F. Lynch | 476 | 1,774 | 2,582 | 2,925 |
Massachusetts | 9 | William R. Keating | 841 | 2,431 | 3,398 | 3,837 |
Michigan | 1 | Jack Bergman | 1,226 | 3,128 | 4,272 | 4,773 |
Michigan | 2 | Bill Huizenga | 1,099 | 2,852 | 3,904 | 4,411 |
Michigan | 3 | Justin Amash | 1,026 | 2,752 | 3,791 | 4,300 |
Michigan | 4 | John R. Moolenaar | 1,184 | 3,093 | 4,236 | 4,814 |
Michigan | 5 | Daniel T. Kildee | 1,340 | 3,470 | 4,742 | 5,414 |
Michigan | 6 | Fred Upton | 1,203 | 3,146 | 4,311 | 4,883 |
Michigan | 7 | Tim Walberg | 895 | 2,383 | 3,280 | 3,704 |
Michigan | 8 | Mike Bishop | 769 | 2,234 | 3,128 | 3,524 |
Michigan | 9 | Sander M. Levin | 1,053 | 2,825 | 3,896 | 4,374 |
Michigan | 10 | Paul Mitchell | 910 | 2,396 | 3,296 | 3,675 |
Michigan | 11 | David A. Trott | 321 | 1,269 | 1,866 | 2,075 |
Michigan | 12 | Debbie Dingell | 1,082 | 2,925 | 4,034 | 4,593 |
Michigan | 13 | John Conyers, Jr. | 2,037 | 5,211 | 7,098 | 8,154 |
Michigan | 14 | Brenda L. Lawrence | 1,568 | 4,192 | 5,765 | 6,594 |
Minnesota | 1 | Timothy J. Walz | 715 | 2,022 | 2,808 | 3,253 |
Minnesota | 2 | Jason Lewis | 291 | 1,112 | 1,618 | 1,893 |
Minnesota | 3 | Erik Paulsen | 10 | 642 | 1,062 | 1,283 |
Minnesota | 4 | Betty McCollum | 752 | 2,294 | 3,227 | 3,764 |
Minnesota | 5 | Keith Ellison | 1,064 | 3,064 | 4,266 | 4,970 |
Minnesota | 6 | Tom Emmer | 457 | 1,384 | 1,945 | 2,254 |
Minnesota | 7 | Collin C. Peterson | 799 | 2,180 | 3,007 | 3,476 |
Minnesota | 8 | Richard M. Nolan | 910 | 2,448 | 3,367 | 3,892 |
Mississippi | 1 | Trent Kelly | 503 | 1,339 | 1,846 | 2,052 |
Mississippi | 2 | Bennie G. Thompson | 820 | 2,075 | 2,830 | 3,146 |
Mississippi | 3 | Gregg Harper | 517 | 1,434 | 1,992 | 2,213 |
Mississippi | 4 | Steven M. Palazzo | 520 | 1,387 | 1,912 | 2,132 |
Missouri | 1 | Wm. Lacy Clay | 790 | 2,035 | 2,792 | 3,035 |
Missouri | 2 | Ann Wagner | 75 | 681 | 1,083 | 1,119 |
Missouri | 3 | Blaine Luetkemeyer | 472 | 1,262 | 1,749 | 1,879 |
Missouri | 4 | Vicky Hartzler | 631 | 1,618 | 2,218 | 2,414 |
Missouri | 5 | Emanuel Cleaver | 665 | 1,721 | 2,365 | 2,569 |
Missouri | 6 | Sam Graves | 472 | 1,282 | 1,782 | 1,918 |
Missouri | 7 | Billy Long | 735 | 1,856 | 2,539 | 2,744 |
Missouri | 8 | Jason Smith | 669 | 1,689 | 2,306 | 2,530 |
Montana | Statewide | vacant | 4,195 | 10,844 | 14,807 | 16,956 |
Nebraska | 1 | Jeff Fortenberry | 188 | 554 | 787 | 798 |
Nebraska | 2 | Don Bacon | 84 | 393 | 595 | 598 |
Nebraska | 3 | Adrian Smith | 336 | 856 | 1,181 | 1,200 |
Nevada | 1 | Dina Titus | 2,079 | 5,348 | 7,293 | 8,370 |
Nevada | 2 | Mark E. Amodei | 1,440 | 3,826 | 5,256 | 5,994 |
Nevada | 3 | Jacky Rosen | 888 | 2,541 | 3,543 | 4,037 |
Nevada | 4 | Ruben Kihuen | 1,598 | 4,172 | 5,708 | 6,537 |
New Hampshire | 1 | Carol Shea-Porter | 968 | 2,733 | 3,805 | 4,295 |
New Hampshire | 2 | Ann M. Kuster | 952 | 2,683 | 3,733 | 4,227 |
New Jersey | 1 | Donald Norcross | 2,149 | 5,769 | 7,932 | 9,145 |
New Jersey | 2 | Frank A. LoBiondo | 2,418 | 6,419 | 8,807 | 10,153 |
New Jersey | 3 | Thomas MacArthur | 1,004 | 2,958 | 4,142 | 4,753 |
New Jersey | 4 | Christopher H. Smith | 1,532 | 4,511 | 6,312 | 7,292 |
New Jersey | 5 | Josh Gottheimer | 705 | 2,590 | 3,757 | 4,322 |
New Jersey | 6 | Frank Pallone, Jr. | 1,705 | 4,827 | 6,706 | 7,731 |
New Jersey | 7 | Leonard Lance | 189 | 1,583 | 2,471 | 2,887 |
New Jersey | 8 | Albio Sires | 3,348 | 8,947 | 12,287 | 14,218 |
New Jersey | 9 | Bill Pascrell, Jr. | 2,776 | 7,473 | 10,280 | 11,864 |
New Jersey | 10 | Donald M. Payne, Jr. | 3,553 | 9,339 | 12,781 | 14,782 |
New Jersey | 11 | Rodney P. Frelinghuysen | 153 | 1,411 | 2,215 | 2,584 |
New Jersey | 12 | Bonnie Watson Coleman | 1,343 | 4,101 | 5,773 | 6,682 |
New Mexico | 1 | Michelle Lujan Grisham | 3,748 | 9,795 | 13,389 | 15,497 |
New Mexico | 2 | Stevan Pearce | 4,438 | 11,467 | 15,636 | 18,106 |
New Mexico | 3 | Ben Ray Luján | 3,867 | 10,066 | 13,748 | 15,911 |
New York | 1 | Lee M. Zeldin | 132 | 271 | 538 | 695 |
New York | 2 | Peter T. King | 102 | 237 | 462 | 594 |
New York | 3 | Thomas R. Suozzi | 656 | 531 | 402 | 331 |
New York | 4 | Kathleen M. Rice | 240 | 150 | 418 | 576 |
New York | 5 | Gregory W. Meeks | 588 | 1,737 | 2,427 | 2,843 |
New York | 6 | Grace Meng | 459 | 1,483 | 2,104 | 2,476 |
New York | 7 | Nydia M. Velázquez | 1,091 | 3,203 | 4,472 | 5,245 |
New York | 8 | Hakeem S. Jeffries | 1,076 | 3,019 | 4,181 | 4,888 |
New York | 9 | Yvette D. Clarke | 789 | 2,349 | 3,287 | 3,857 |
New York | 10 | Jerrold Nadler | 249 | 716 | 1,352 | 1,735 |
New York | 11 | Daniel M. Donovan, Jr. | 410 | 1,444 | 2,074 | 2,456 |
New York | 12 | Carolyn B. Maloney | 896 | 501 | 182 | 5 |
New York | 13 | Adriano Espaillat | 1,393 | 3,769 | 5,183 | 6,048 |
New York | 14 | Joseph Crowley | 817 | 2,268 | 3,135 | 3,661 |
New York | 15 | José E. Serrano | 2,002 | 5,192 | 7,080 | 8,238 |
New York | 16 | Eliot L. Engel | 114 | 985 | 1,533 | 1,864 |
New York | 17 | Nita M. Lowey | 190 | 409 | 807 | 1,045 |
New York | 18 | Sean Patrick Maloney | 51 | 691 | 1,096 | 1,340 |
New York | 19 | John J. Faso | 374 | 1,224 | 1,739 | 2,051 |
New York | 20 | Paul Tonko | 386 | 1,302 | 1,858 | 2,196 |
New York | 21 | Elise M. Stefanik | 585 | 1,651 | 2,289 | 2,678 |
New York | 22 | Claudia Tenney | 656 | 1,833 | 2,536 | 2,966 |
New York | 23 | Tom Reed | 687 | 1,922 | 2,661 | 3,112 |
New York | 24 | John Katko | 561 | 1,662 | 2,324 | 2,727 |
New York | 25 | Louise McIntosh Slaughter | 590 | 1,763 | 2,468 | 2,898 |
New York | 26 | Brian Higgins | 800 | 2,219 | 3,067 | 3,585 |
New York | 27 | Chris Collins | 250 | 896 | 1,290 | 1,528 |
North Carolina | 1 | G. K. Butterfield | 1,315 | 3,320 | 4,522 | 5,075 |
North Carolina | 2 | George Holding | 878 | 2,347 | 3,240 | 3,580 |
North Carolina | 3 | Walter B. Jones | 985 | 2,531 | 3,464 | 3,852 |
North Carolina | 4 | David E. Price | 948 | 2,611 | 3,626 | 4,016 |
North Carolina | 5 | Virginia Foxx | 1,021 | 2,677 | 3,680 | 4,085 |
North Carolina | 6 | Mark Walker | 847 | 2,271 | 3,138 | 3,465 |
North Carolina | 7 | David Rouzer | 1,090 | 2,804 | 3,839 | 4,256 |
North Carolina | 8 | Richard Hudson | 1,132 | 2,864 | 3,904 | 4,356 |
North Carolina | 9 | Robert Pittenger | 280 | 1,248 | 1,867 | 2,019 |
North Carolina | 10 | Patrick T. McHenry | 1,042 | 2,674 | 3,660 | 4,048 |
North Carolina | 11 | Mark Meadows | 1,148 | 2,889 | 3,939 | 4,349 |
North Carolina | 12 | Alma S. Adams | 1,580 | 3,951 | 5,376 | 5,966 |
North Carolina | 13 | Ted Budd | 612 | 1,829 | 2,583 | 2,814 |
North Dakota | Statewide | Kevin Cramer | 934 | 2,624 | 3,646 | 4,151 |
Ohio | 1 | Steve Chabot | 1,216 | 3,394 | 4,704 | 5,414 |
Ohio | 2 | Brad R. Wenstrup | 1,057 | 2,963 | 4,111 | 4,725 |
Ohio | 3 | Joyce Beatty | 1,867 | 4,879 | 6,673 | 7,688 |
Ohio | 4 | Jim Jordan | 1,129 | 2,972 | 4,072 | 4,680 |
Ohio | 5 | Robert E. Latta | 957 | 2,602 | 3,589 | 4,122 |
Ohio | 6 | Bill Johnson | 1,309 | 3,419 | 4,677 | 5,372 |
Ohio | 7 | Bob Gibbs | 1,105 | 2,933 | 4,026 | 4,614 |
Ohio | 8 | Warren Davidson | 1,103 | 2,958 | 4,068 | 4,669 |
Ohio | 9 | Marcy Kaptur | 1,655 | 4,327 | 5,919 | 6,818 |
Ohio | 10 | Michael R. Turner | 1,298 | 3,489 | 4,800 | 5,525 |
Ohio | 11 | Marcia L. Fudge | 1,957 | 5,194 | 7,124 | 8,226 |
Ohio | 12 | Patrick J. Tiberi | 655 | 2,063 | 2,922 | 3,364 |
Ohio | 13 | Tim Ryan | 1,511 | 3,926 | 5,366 | 6,160 |
Ohio | 14 | David P. Joyce | 604 | 1,848 | 2,607 | 2,972 |
Ohio | 15 | Steve Stivers | 994 | 2,746 | 3,798 | 4,366 |
Ohio | 16 | James B. Renacci | 565 | 1,673 | 2,347 | 2,673 |
Oklahoma | 1 | Jim Bridenstine | 245 | 798 | 1,147 | 1,213 |
Oklahoma | 2 | Markwayne Mullin | 369 | 957 | 1,318 | 1,420 |
Oklahoma | 3 | Frank D. Lucas | 292 | 823 | 1,154 | 1,226 |
Oklahoma | 4 | Tom Cole | 291 | 826 | 1,159 | 1,230 |
Oklahoma | 5 | Steve Russell | 313 | 961 | 1,367 | 1,455 |
Oregon | 1 | Suzanne Bonamici | 2,371 | 6,413 | 8,833 | 10,176 |
Oregon | 2 | Greg Walden | 3,546 | 9,149 | 12,482 | 14,352 |
Oregon | 3 | Earl Blumenauer | 3,493 | 9,167 | 12,551 | 14,441 |
Oregon | 4 | Peter A. DeFazio | 3,882 | 10,040 | 13,698 | 15,812 |
Oregon | 5 | Kurt Schrader | 2,881 | 7,582 | 10,383 | 11,968 |
Pennsylvania | 1 | Robert A. Brady | 1,262 | 3,318 | 4,553 | 5,160 |
Pennsylvania | 2 | Dwight Evans | 1,239 | 3,416 | 4,729 | 5,388 |
Pennsylvania | 3 | Mike Kelly | 661 | 1,812 | 2,508 | 2,837 |
Pennsylvania | 4 | Scott Perry | 585 | 1,614 | 2,240 | 2,497 |
Pennsylvania | 5 | Glenn Thompson | 732 | 1,948 | 2,679 | 3,035 |
Pennsylvania | 6 | Ryan A. Costello | 163 | 912 | 1,393 | 1,532 |
Pennsylvania | 7 | Patrick Meehan | 94 | 784 | 1,234 | 1,343 |
Pennsylvania | 8 | Brian K. Fitzpatrick | 227 | 1,013 | 1,518 | 1,629 |
Pennsylvania | 9 | Bill Shuster | 778 | 2,026 | 2,776 | 3,130 |
Pennsylvania | 10 | Tom Marino | 704 | 1,868 | 2,572 | 2,874 |
Pennsylvania | 11 | Lou Barletta | 645 | 1,749 | 2,418 | 2,712 |
Pennsylvania | 12 | Keith J. Rothfus | 417 | 1,304 | 1,851 | 2,067 |
Pennsylvania | 13 | Brendan F. Boyle | 690 | 1,975 | 2,761 | 3,078 |
Pennsylvania | 14 | Michael F. Doyle | 901 | 2,417 | 3,330 | 3,768 |
Pennsylvania | 15 | Charles W. Dent | 574 | 1,652 | 2,310 | 2,581 |
Pennsylvania | 16 | Lloyd Smucker | 743 | 2,009 | 2,776 | 3,114 |
Pennsylvania | 17 | Matt Cartwright | 748 | 1,969 | 2,706 | 3,027 |
Pennsylvania | 18 | Tim Murphy | 340 | 1,136 | 1,632 | 1,813 |
Rhode Island | 1 | David N. Cicilline | 1,736 | 4,626 | 6,354 | 7,303 |
Rhode Island | 2 | James R. Langevin | 1,378 | 3,700 | 5,092 | 5,833 |
South Carolina | 1 | Mark Sanford | 218 | 754 | 1,099 | 1,118 |
South Carolina | 2 | Joe Wilson | 228 | 682 | 970 | 998 |
South Carolina | 3 | Jeff Duncan | 332 | 845 | 1,163 | 1,208 |
South Carolina | 4 | Trey Gowdy | 328 | 902 | 1,262 | 1,300 |
South Carolina | 5 | vacant | 325 | 850 | 1,177 | 1,220 |
South Carolina | 6 | James E. Clyburn | 426 | 1,036 | 1,410 | 1,472 |
South Carolina | 7 | Tom Rice | 486 | 1,197 | 1,637 | 1,695 |
South Dakota | Statewide | Kristi L. Noem | 239 | 748 | 1,069 | 1,128 |
Tennessee | 1 | David P. Roe | 1,049 | 2,712 | 3,711 | 4,181 |
Tennessee | 2 | John J. Duncan, Jr. | 819 | 2,223 | 3,074 | 3,452 |
Tennessee | 3 | Charles J. “Chuck” Fleischmann | 928 | 2,443 | 3,354 | 3,779 |
Tennessee | 4 | Scott DesJarlais | 901 | 2,365 | 3,245 | 3,659 |
Tennessee | 5 | Jim Cooper | 982 | 2,666 | 3,686 | 4,130 |
Tennessee | 6 | Diane Black | 861 | 2,273 | 3,124 | 3,508 |
Tennessee | 7 | Marsha Blackburn | 708 | 2,038 | 2,849 | 3,210 |
Tennessee | 8 | David Kustoff | 629 | 1,836 | 2,573 | 2,895 |
Tennessee | 9 | Steve Cohen | 1,361 | 3,501 | 4,781 | 5,426 |
Texas | 1 | Louie Gohmert | 395 | 1,072 | 1,490 | 1,603 |
Texas | 2 | Ted Poe | 98 | 735 | 1,155 | 1,200 |
Texas | 3 | Sam Johnson | 25 | 621 | 1,023 | 1,038 |
Texas | 4 | John Ratcliffe | 356 | 998 | 1,396 | 1,497 |
Texas | 5 | Jeb Hensarling | 468 | 1,236 | 1,708 | 1,826 |
Texas | 6 | Joe Barton | 397 | 1,120 | 1,571 | 1,656 |
Texas | 7 | John Abney Culberson | 100 | 474 | 869 | 899 |
Texas | 8 | Kevin Brady | 164 | 754 | 1,134 | 1,201 |
Texas | 9 | Al Green | 681 | 1,710 | 2,339 | 2,499 |
Texas | 10 | Michael T. McCaul | 239 | 946 | 1,401 | 1,466 |
Texas | 11 | K. Michael Conaway | 249 | 820 | 1,178 | 1,263 |
Texas | 12 | Kay Granger | 331 | 1,027 | 1,466 | 1,539 |
Texas | 13 | Mac Thornberry | 302 | 843 | 1,177 | 1,271 |
Texas | 14 | Randy K. Weber, Sr. | 291 | 919 | 1,314 | 1,404 |
Texas | 15 | Vicente Gonzalez | 640 | 1,622 | 2,218 | 2,420 |
Texas | 16 | Beto O’Rourke | 800 | 1,956 | 2,663 | 2,818 |
Texas | 17 | Bill Flores | 397 | 1,104 | 1,541 | 1,668 |
Texas | 18 | Sheila Jackson Lee | 586 | 1,557 | 2,154 | 2,312 |
Texas | 19 | Jodey C. Arrington | 321 | 910 | 1,274 | 1,383 |
Texas | 20 | Joaquin Castro | 578 | 1,448 | 1,979 | 2,113 |
Texas | 21 | Lamar Smith | 225 | 919 | 1,367 | 1,431 |
Texas | 22 | Pete Olson | 76 | 738 | 1,180 | 1,198 |
Texas | 23 | Will Hurd | 480 | 1,334 | 1,863 | 1,991 |
Texas | 24 | Kenny Marchant | 85 | 684 | 1,080 | 1,120 |
Texas | 25 | Roger Williams | 188 | 812 | 1,216 | 1,277 |
Texas | 26 | Michael C. Burgess | 165 | 771 | 1,166 | 1,199 |
Texas | 27 | Blake Farenthold | 378 | 1,037 | 1,444 | 1,553 |
Texas | 28 | Henry Cuellar | 668 | 1,667 | 2,275 | 2,450 |
Texas | 29 | Gene Green | 756 | 1,828 | 2,477 | 2,668 |
Texas | 30 | Eddie Bernice Johnson | 632 | 1,591 | 2,176 | 2,335 |
Texas | 31 | John R. Carter | 288 | 886 | 1,263 | 1,325 |
Texas | 32 | Pete Sessions | 117 | 765 | 1,189 | 1,246 |
Texas | 33 | Marc A. Veasey | 758 | 1,832 | 2,480 | 2,681 |
Texas | 34 | Filemon Vela | 660 | 1,662 | 2,270 | 2,476 |
Texas | 35 | Lloyd Doggett | 716 | 1,748 | 2,375 | 2,551 |
Texas | 36 | Brian Babin | 372 | 1,051 | 1,474 | 1,565 |
Utah | 1 | Rob Bishop | 503 | 1,315 | 1,818 | 1,903 |
Utah | 2 | Chris Stewart | 621 | 1,607 | 2,217 | 2,331 |
Utah | 3 | Jason Chaffetz | 579 | 1,544 | 2,143 | 2,238 |
Utah | 4 | Mia B. Love | 610 | 1,540 | 2,114 | 2,208 |
Vermont | Statewide | Peter Welch | 1,137 | 3,011 | 4,140 | 4,664 |
Virginia | 1 | Robert J. Wittman | 156 | 742 | 1,125 | 1,145 |
Virginia | 2 | Scott Taylor | 295 | 885 | 1,257 | 1,304 |
Virginia | 3 | Robert C. “Bobby” Scott | 448 | 1,150 | 1,580 | 1,693 |
Virginia | 4 | A. Donald McEachin | 406 | 1,103 | 1,539 | 1,593 |
Virginia | 5 | Thomas A. Garrett, Jr. | 440 | 1,208 | 1,687 | 1,762 |
Virginia | 6 | Bob Goodlatte | 440 | 1,150 | 1,590 | 1,669 |
Virginia | 7 | Dave Brat | 201 | 844 | 1,263 | 1,283 |
Virginia | 8 | Donald S. Beyer, Jr. | 310 | 184 | 547 | 520 |
Virginia | 9 | H. Morgan Griffith | 434 | 1,124 | 1,549 | 1,644 |
Virginia | 10 | Barbara Comstock | 428 | 6 | 319 | 267 |
Virginia | 11 | Gerald E. Connolly | 117 | 486 | 908 | 887 |
Washington | 1 | Suzan K. DelBene | 819 | 2,627 | 3,732 | 4,294 |
Washington | 2 | Rick Larsen | 1,713 | 4,539 | 6,228 | 7,154 |
Washington | 3 | Jaime Herrera Beutler | 1,797 | 4,732 | 6,484 | 7,453 |
Washington | 4 | Dan Newhouse | 2,406 | 6,289 | 8,598 | 9,945 |
Washington | 5 | Cathy McMorris Rodgers | 2,105 | 5,508 | 7,534 | 8,686 |
Washington | 6 | Derek Kilmer | 1,620 | 4,338 | 5,962 | 6,867 |
Washington | 7 | Pramila Jayapal | 1,151 | 3,622 | 5,127 | 5,933 |
Washington | 8 | David G. Reichert | 1,217 | 3,485 | 4,855 | 5,584 |
Washington | 9 | Adam Smith | 1,718 | 4,846 | 6,728 | 7,765 |
Washington | 10 | Denny Heck | 1,630 | 4,315 | 5,916 | 6,821 |
West Virginia | 1 | David B. McKinley | 1,801 | 4,706 | 6,435 | 7,436 |
West Virginia | 2 | Alexander X. Mooney | 1,623 | 4,284 | 5,869 | 6,778 |
West Virginia | 3 | Evan H. Jenkins | 2,121 | 5,509 | 7,520 | 8,701 |
Wisconsin | 1 | Paul D. Ryan | 270 | 803 | 1,138 | 1,187 |
Wisconsin | 2 | Mark Pocan | 185 | 668 | 976 | 1,026 |
Wisconsin | 3 | Ron Kind | 395 | 1,024 | 1,413 | 1,482 |
Wisconsin | 4 | Gwen Moore | 466 | 1,214 | 1,673 | 1,797 |
Wisconsin | 5 | F. James Sensenbrenner, Jr. | 147 | 604 | 901 | 925 |
Wisconsin | 6 | Glenn Grothman | 286 | 817 | 1,152 | 1,195 |
Wisconsin | 7 | Sean P. Duffy | 492 | 1,244 | 1,710 | 1,776 |
Wisconsin | 8 | Mike Gallagher | 378 | 1,006 | 1,398 | 1,450 |
Wyoming | Statewide | Liz Cheney | 199 | 582 | 824 | 853 |
The nongroup market spending is the net outcome of repealing ACA subsidies and introducing new AHCA tax credits. We take estimates of current health exchange enrollees by the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) and apply estimates from Cutler (2017) on the change in enrollment spurred by the AHCA to get a measure of remaining enrollment in nongroup markets by congressional district (CD). We use this measure to allocate the nationwide amount of tax credits estimated by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). We also provide an age adjustment that estimates higher tax credits going to CDs whose age 18–64 population skews older, reflecting the fact that under the AHCA tax credits are larger for older enrollees. Specifically, we multiply the share of the 18–64 population that is between 30 and 49 by 1.375 and the share that is 50 and over by 1.875, reflecting the greater generosity of tax credits for these populations relative to those received by the under-30 population.
For Medicaid spending we allocate the CBO estimates of Medicaid spending reductions across states by using the Blumberg et al. (2016) estimates of how partial ACA repeal would be borne. Within states, we allocate the incidence of these spending cuts across CDs proportionally to each CD’s share of the population with incomes beneath the federal poverty line.
For tax cuts, we assume 40 percent of the revenue accrues uniformly across CDs, while allocating 60 percent of it proportionally to each CD’s total share of the population with incomes over $150,000.
Output multipliers are 1.4 for the nongroup spending reductions, 2 for Medicaid spending reductions, and 0.4 for the tax cuts. These parameter choices are explained in Bivens (2017). In 2019, we divide the output change by $146,000 to get employment changes, also explained in Bivens (2017). For each year after 2019, we increase this divisor by 1.5 percent, reflecting expected productivity growth over that time.
Source: Author's analysis of U.S. Census Bureau (2013), U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC 2016a), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS 2016e), and BLS Employment Projections program (BLS-EP 2014a and 2014b). For a more detailed explanation of data sources and computations, see the appendix.
The tweaks made to the AHCA since March have made it unambiguously worse, not better. Allowing states to tell insurance companies that they no longer have to provide what are defined as “essential health benefits” or provide coverage for those with pre-existing conditions is not a win for health and financial security. Claims that the most-vulnerable and sickest Americans can be held harmless by this provision because money has been allocated for forming “high-risk” pools would be laughable if it was not so damaging to real people. The money allocated for these high-risk pools is wildly insufficient, and there is no serious rationale for segregating the sickest Americans in politically vulnerable coverage schemes unless the plan is eventually to save money by letting them go without insurance.
Further, allowing states to undermine the key regulatory protections introduced in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) will degrade the protectiveness of even employer-sponsored health insurance plans. The ACA instituted bans on lifetime limits and capped annual out-of-pocket spending in employer-sponsored plans, but only for essential health benefits. If a state starts stripping these essential health benefits out of regulatory protections, all Americans with employer-sponsored plans will be exposed to greater risk as the ACA bans on lifetime limits and annual out-of-pocket caps will no longer apply.
Congressional Republicans have taken a terrible bill that was rejected by the vast majority of Americans and made it clearly worse. The only people winning from this action would be those who would receive the lion’s share of benefits from the hundreds of billions of dollars in tax cuts that are bundled in the AHCA. If it passes the House of Representatives today, it will be a terrible day for Americans’ health and financial security.
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