More of the same: JOLTS is continued evidence of a slow moving economy

Today’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report shows there has been little change in the labor market for America’s workers. The rate of job openings actually decreased in August to 5.4 million. At the same time, the hires rate held steady while the quits rate remains depressed. Coupled with jobs reports so far this year, today’s report provides more evidence of a slow moving economy, with meager wage growth and employment growth that’s just keeping up with the growth in the working age population.

There is still a significant gap between the number of people looking for jobs and the number of job openings. The figure below shows the levels of unemployed workers and job openings. You can see the labor market improve over the last five years, as the number of unemployed workers falls and job openings rise. In a stronger economy (like the one shown in the initial year of data), these levels would be much closer together. Today, there are still 1.5 active job seekers for every job opening. Furthermore, on top of the 8+ million unemployed workers warming the bench, there are still four million workers sitting in the stands with little hope to even get in the game.

JOLTS

Job openings levels and unemployment levels, 2000-2015

Month Job Openings level Unemployment level
Dec-2000 4.934 5.634
Jan-2001 5.273 6.023
Feb-2001 4.706 6.089
Mar-2001 4.618 6.141
Apr-2001 4.668 6.271
May-2001 4.444 6.226
Jun-2001 4.232 6.484
Jul-2001 4.354 6.583
Aug-2001 4.095 7.042
Sep-2001 3.973 7.142
Oct-2001 3.594 7.694
Nov-2001 3.545 8.003
Dec-2001 3.586 8.258
Jan-2002 3.587 8.182
Feb-2002 3.412 8.215
Mar-2002 3.605 8.304
Apr-2002 3.357 8.599
May-2002 3.525 8.399
Jun-2002 3.325 8.393
Jul-2002 3.343 8.39
Aug-2002 3.462 8.304
Sep-2002 3.319 8.251
Oct-2002 3.502 8.307
Nov-2002 3.585 8.52
Dec-2002 3.074 8.64
Jan-2003 3.686 8.52
Feb-2003 3.402 8.618
Mar-2003 3.101 8.588
Apr-2003 3.182 8.842
May-2003 3.201 8.957
Jun-2003 3.356 9.266
Jul-2003 3.195 9.011
Aug-2003 3.239 8.896
Sep-2003 3.054 8.921
Oct-2003 3.196 8.732
Nov-2003 3.316 8.576
Dec-2003 3.334 8.317
Jan-2004 3.391 8.37
Feb-2004 3.437 8.167
Mar-2004 3.42 8.491
Apr-2004 3.466 8.17
May-2004 3.658 8.212
Jun-2004 3.384 8.286
Jul-2004 3.835 8.136
Aug-2004 3.578 7.99
Sep-2004 3.704 7.927
Oct-2004 3.779 8.061
Nov-2004 3.456 7.932
Dec-2004 3.846 7.934
Jan-2005 3.595 7.784
Feb-2005 3.842 7.98
Mar-2005 3.891 7.737
Apr-2005 4.115 7.672
May-2005 3.824 7.651
Jun-2005 4.018 7.524
Jul-2005 4.162 7.406
Aug-2005 4.085 7.345
Sep-2005 4.227 7.553
Oct-2005 4.23 7.453
Nov-2005 4.341 7.566
Dec-2005 4.249 7.279
Jan-2006 4.278 7.064
Feb-2006 4.308 7.184
Mar-2006 4.537 7.072
Apr-2006 4.495 7.12
May-2006 4.432 6.98
Jun-2006 4.331 7.001
Jul-2006 4.081 7.175
Aug-2006 4.411 7.091
Sep-2006 4.498 6.847
Oct-2006 4.454 6.727
Nov-2006 4.622 6.872
Dec-2006 4.552 6.762
Jan-2007 4.59 7.116
Feb-2007 4.481 6.927
Mar-2007 4.657 6.731
Apr-2007 4.534 6.85
May-2007 4.531 6.766
Jun-2007 4.639 6.979
Jul-2007 4.43 7.149
Aug-2007 4.508 7.067
Sep-2007 4.481 7.17
Oct-2007 4.278 7.237
Nov-2007 4.278 7.24
Dec-2007 4.323 7.645
Jan-2008 4.223 7.685
Feb-2008 4.039 7.497
Mar-2008 4.012 7.822
Apr-2008 3.85 7.637
May-2008 4 8.395
Jun-2008 3.67 8.575
Jul-2008 3.762 8.937
Aug-2008 3.584 9.438
Sep-2008 3.21 9.494
Oct-2008 3.273 10.074
Nov-2008 3.059 10.538
Dec-2008 3.049 11.286
Jan-2009 2.763 12.058
Feb-2009 2.794 12.898
Mar-2009 2.493 13.426
Apr-2009 2.271 13.853
May-2009 2.413 14.499
Jun-2009 2.388 14.707
Jul-2009 2.146 14.601
Aug-2009 2.294 14.814
Sep-2009 2.434 15.009
Oct-2009 2.376 15.352
Nov-2009 2.419 15.219
Dec-2009 2.49 15.098
Jan-2010 2.706 15.046
Feb-2010 2.561 15.113
Mar-2010 2.652 15.202
Apr-2010 3.097 15.325
May-2010 2.9 14.849
Jun-2010 2.728 14.474
Jul-2010 2.929 14.512
Aug-2010 2.869 14.648
Sep-2010 2.782 14.579
Oct-2010 3.026 14.516
Nov-2010 3.072 15.081
Dec-2010 2.909 14.348
Jan-2011 2.917 14.046
Feb-2011 3.065 13.828
Mar-2011 3.132 13.728
Apr-2011 3.099 13.956
May-2011 3.032 13.853
Jun-2011 3.194 13.958
Jul-2011 3.417 13.756
Aug-2011 3.138 13.806
Sep-2011 3.557 13.929
Oct-2011 3.422 13.599
Nov-2011 3.215 13.309
Dec-2011 3.527 13.071
Jan-2012 3.653 12.812
Feb-2012 3.517 12.828
Mar-2012 3.837 12.696
Apr-2012 3.627 12.636
May-2012 3.696 12.668
Jun-2012 3.785 12.688
Jul-2012 3.587 12.657
Aug-2012 3.637 12.449
Sep-2012 3.614 12.106
Oct-2012 3.729 12.141
Nov-2012 3.741 12.026
Dec-2012 3.64 12.272
Jan-2013 3.77 12.497
Feb-2013 4.023 11.967
Mar-2013 3.891 11.653
Apr-2013 3.84 11.735
May-2013 3.829 11.671
Jun-2013 3.864 11.736
Jul-2013 3.829 11.357
Aug-2013 3.893 11.241
Sep-2013 3.955 11.251
Oct-2013 4.076 11.161
Nov-2013 4.073 10.814
Dec-2013 3.977 10.376
Jan-2014 3.906 10.28
Feb-2014 4.160 10.387
Mar-2014 4.210 10.384
Apr-2014 4.417 9.696
May-2014 4.608 9.761
Jun-2014 4.710 9.453
Jul-2014 4.726 9.648
Aug-2014 4.925 9.568
Sep-2014 4.678 9.237
Oct-2014 4.849 8.983
Nov-2014 4.886 9.071
Dec-2014 4.877 8.688
Jan-2015 4.965 8.979
Feb-2015 5.144 8.705
Mar-2015 5.109 8.575
Apr-2015 5.334 8.549
May-2015 5.357 8.674
Jun-2015 5.323 8.299
Jul-2015 5.668 8.266
Aug-2015 5.370 8.029

 

ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions.

Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and Current Population Survey

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Meanwhile, the figure below shows the hires, quits, and layoff rates through August 2015. The layoff rate was unchanged in August. While layoffs, which shot up during the recession but recovered quickly, have been at pre-recession levels for more than three years, the hiring and quits rates need to pick up. The hires rate held steady in August, and is still below where it was at the end of 2014. The voluntary quits rate also held steady at 1.9 percent in August, where it has sat for eight of the last 12 months. In August, the quits rate was still 9.2 percent lower than it was in 2007, before the recession began. This is evidence that workers are stuck in jobs that they would leave if they could. A larger number of people voluntarily quitting their jobs would indicate a strong labor market—one in which workers are able to leave jobs that are not right for them and find new ones. Before long, we should see a return to pre-recession levels of voluntary quits, but we are not there yet.

JOLTS

Total hires, layoffs, and quits, 2000-2015

Month Hires Layoffs Quits
Dec-2000 5.395 1.879 3.044
Jan-2001 5.801 2.109 3.39
Feb-2001 5.434 1.8 3.284
Mar-2001 5.619 2.134 3.178
Apr-2001 5.335 1.929 3.191
May-2001 5.358 2.007 3.116
Jun-2001 5.083 1.924 2.993
Jul-2001 5.173 1.941 2.945
Aug-2001 5.076 1.878 2.823
Sep-2001 4.961 2.056 2.729
Oct-2001 5.016 2.222 2.843
Nov-2001 4.887 2.12 2.621
Dec-2001 4.788 1.881 2.627
Jan-2002 4.9 1.84 2.894
Feb-2002 4.883 1.97 2.675
Mar-2002 4.626 1.765 2.526
Apr-2002 4.93 1.9 2.71
May-2002 4.923 1.931 2.722
Jun-2002 4.821 1.85 2.602
Jul-2002 5.014 1.99 2.688
Aug-2002 4.881 1.856 2.607
Sep-2002 4.87 1.888 2.608
Oct-2002 4.803 1.847 2.563
Nov-2002 4.941 1.912 2.497
Dec-2002 4.93 1.986 2.647
Jan-2003 5.008 1.98 2.489
Feb-2003 4.681 1.95 2.498
Mar-2003 4.444 1.868 2.428
Apr-2003 4.689 2.023 2.387
May-2003 4.618 1.977 2.394
Jun-2003 4.772 2.136 2.365
Jul-2003 4.721 2.053 2.341
Aug-2003 4.666 1.979 2.38
Sep-2003 4.87 1.893 2.468
Oct-2003 4.898 1.889 2.508
Nov-2003 4.726 1.812 2.495
Dec-2003 4.967 1.951 2.503
Jan-2004 4.839 1.913 2.423
Feb-2004 4.69 1.838 2.467
Mar-2004 5.17 1.889 2.662
Apr-2004 5.115 1.911 2.623
May-2004 4.951 1.858 2.482
Jun-2004 4.949 1.88 2.666
Jul-2004 4.858 1.819 2.67
Aug-2004 5.129 1.954 2.639
Sep-2004 4.984 1.829 2.593
Oct-2004 5.122 1.794 2.585
Nov-2004 5.204 1.954 2.818
Dec-2004 5.239 1.973 2.772
Jan-2005 5.187 1.913 2.83
Feb-2005 5.203 1.909 2.675
Mar-2005 5.207 1.958 2.854
Apr-2005 5.291 1.884 2.765
May-2005 5.271 1.911 2.842
Jun-2005 5.286 1.967 2.796
Jul-2005 5.301 1.862 2.747
Aug-2005 5.431 1.878 2.938
Sep-2005 5.429 1.902 3.053
Oct-2005 5.065 1.717 2.943
Nov-2005 5.227 1.639 2.928
Dec-2005 5.057 1.735 2.823
Jan-2006 5.218 1.719 2.853
Feb-2006 5.347 1.721 3.013
Mar-2006 5.294 1.63 3.037
Apr-2006 5.125 1.743 2.808
May-2006 5.47 1.933 3.049
Jun-2006 5.256 1.674 3.034
Jul-2006 5.357 1.767 2.943
Aug-2006 5.208 1.627 2.95
Sep-2006 5.213 1.741 2.914
Oct-2006 5.17 1.77 2.936
Nov-2006 5.469 1.826 3.096
Dec-2006 5.19 1.724 3.083
Jan-2007 5.195 1.681 2.975
Feb-2007 5.178 1.762 2.995
Mar-2007 5.287 1.787 2.985
Apr-2007 5.153 1.856 2.89
May-2007 5.217 1.725 2.978
Jun-2007 5.18 1.83 2.829
Jul-2007 5.106 1.797 2.898
Aug-2007 5.131 1.841 2.89
Sep-2007 5.136 2.071 2.638
Oct-2007 5.203 1.911 2.853
Nov-2007 5.177 1.924 2.823
Dec-2007 5.035 1.794 2.823
Jan-2008 4.868 1.823 2.818
Feb-2008 4.863 1.875 2.809
Mar-2008 4.759 1.842 2.619
Apr-2008 4.857 1.854 2.839
May-2008 4.604 1.813 2.639
Jun-2008 4.782 2.021 2.62
Jul-2008 4.467 1.906 2.495
Aug-2008 4.58 2.137 2.375
Sep-2008 4.297 1.96 2.417
Oct-2008 4.454 2.126 2.443
Nov-2008 3.899 2.187 2.083
Dec-2008 4.271 2.407 2.129
Jan-2009 4.111 2.502 2.04
Feb-2009 4.004 2.468 1.959
Mar-2009 3.697 2.442 1.804
Apr-2009 3.87 2.592 1.731
May-2009 3.736 2.118 1.711
Jun-2009 3.649 2.123 1.737
Jul-2009 3.807 2.237 1.71
Aug-2009 3.734 2.063 1.642
Sep-2009 3.846 2.095 1.644
Oct-2009 3.746 1.972 1.67
Nov-2009 3.966 1.863 1.786
Dec-2009 3.819 1.981 1.69
Jan-2010 3.903 1.872 1.674
Feb-2010 3.778 1.795 1.737
Mar-2010 4.189 1.879 1.809
Apr-2010 4.087 1.66 1.896
May-2010 4.368 1.76 1.777
Jun-2010 4.074 1.978 1.909
Jul-2010 4.121 2.091 1.841
Aug-2010 3.914 1.766 1.864
Sep-2010 3.995 1.775 1.901
Oct-2010 4.05 1.661 1.875
Nov-2010 4.11 1.779 1.838
Dec-2010 4.18 1.776 1.966
Jan-2011 3.904 1.687 1.803
Feb-2011 4.035 1.657 1.879
Mar-2011 4.266 1.736 1.974
Apr-2011 4.219 1.669 1.921
May-2011 4.125 1.688 1.984
Jun-2011 4.297 1.844 1.951
Jul-2011 4.18 1.758 1.966
Aug-2011 4.193 1.717 2.045
Sep-2011 4.326 1.761 2.041
Oct-2011 4.217 1.749 1.963
Nov-2011 4.235 1.782 1.979
Dec-2011 4.254 1.695 1.991
Jan-2012 4.296 1.675 1.963
Feb-2012 4.451 1.759 2.096
Mar-2012 4.472 1.692 2.175
Apr-2012 4.305 1.841 2.09
May-2012 4.44 1.841 2.155
Jun-2012 4.338 1.779 2.147
Jul-2012 4.285 1.646 2.091
Aug-2012 4.46 1.88 2.122
Sep-2012 4.22 1.768 1.949
Oct-2012 4.322 1.751 2.042
Nov-2012 4.417 1.781 2.092
Dec-2012 4.361 1.552 2.145
Jan-2013 4.411 1.606 2.293
Feb-2013 4.574 1.619 2.277
Mar-2013 4.289 1.784 2.091
Apr-2013 4.49 1.72 2.284
May-2013 4.554 1.728 2.212
Jun-2013 4.41 1.642 2.211
Jul-2013 4.493 1.626 2.323
Aug-2013 4.647 1.685 2.349
Sep-2013 4.651 1.776 2.376
Oct-2013 4.458 1.526 2.407
Nov-2013 4.616 1.536 2.416
Dec-2013 4.545 1.682 2.387
Jan-2014 4.600 1.752 2.384
Feb-2014 4.698 1.671 2.438
Mar-2014 4.744 1.684 2.43
Apr-2014 4.79 1.703 2.413
May-2014 4.805 1.659 2.494
Jun-2014 4.820 1.700 2.469
Jul-2014 5.003 1.827 2.542
Aug-2014 4.792 1.663 2.516
Sep-2014 5.061 1.694 2.733
Oct-2014 5.106 1.745 2.746
Nov-2014 5.026 1.595 2.662
Dec-2014 5.239 1.725 2.715
Jan-2015 4.994 1.722 2.779
Feb-2015 5.011 1.688 2.720
Mar-2015 5.088 1.894 2.769
Apr-2015 5.034 1.784 2.709
May-2015 5.060 1.660 2.730
Jun-2015 5.182 1.779 2.738
Jul-2015 5.065 1.646 2.737
Aug-2015 5.078 1.688 2.741

 

ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions.

Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.

As with last month’s JOLTS report, there do appear to be early signs of some sectoral tightening. Last year at this time, there were more unemployed workers than job openings in every sector. As you can see in the figure below, some sectors have seen improvements, particularly health care and social assistance and finance and insurance. This within-sector tightening is a small sign of good news, but other sectors have seen little-to-no improvement in their job-seekers-to-job-openings ratio. There are, for example still 45 unemployed construction workers for every 10 constructions jobs. In other words, despite claims from some employers, there is no shortage of construction workers. (Of course, unemployed workers in one sector can sometimes find a job in a different sector, but the disproportionate numbers of job seekers in some sectors is still troubling.)In fact, while the market does appear to be improving for some types of unemployed workers, there are no significant worker shortages anywhere in the economy.

JOLTS

Unemployed and job openings, by industry (in millions)

Industry Unemployed Job openings
Professional and business services 0.9323 1.0357
Health care and social assistance 0.6521 0.8461
Retail trade 1.0177 0.5342
Accommodation and food services 0.9284 0.6418
Government 0.6119 0.4841
Finance and insurance 0.1797 0.2394
Durable goods manufacturing 0.4194 0.1977
Other services 0.3468 0.1703
Wholesale trade 0.1414 0.1683
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 0.2919 0.2024
Information 0.1237 0.1044
Construction 0.6454 0.1424
Nondurable goods manufacturing 0.2633 0.1225
Educational services 0.2249 0.0927
Real estate and rental and leasing 0.0939 0.0771
Arts, entertainment, and recreation 0.1906 0.0643
Mining and logging 0.0697 0.0214

 

ChartData Download data

The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Note: Because the data are not seasonally adjusted, these are 12-month averages, September 2014–August 2015.

Source: EPI analysis of data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and the Current Population Survey

Copy the code below to embed this chart on your website.

Taken as a whole, these numbers demonstrate that the main problem in the labor market is a broad-based lack of demand for workers—not available workers lacking the skills needed for the sectors with job openings. This morning’s JOLTS report is further evidence that the economy has ways to go before it can be considered healthy. With Congress gridlocked, the most important policy lever we have at our disposal is interest rates controlled by the Federal Reserve. The Fed has rightfully continued to hold the line and should continue to let the economy grow, and not do anything to slow down our recovery.