The road to full employment is long, but we are moving in the right direction

The labor market ended the year on a positive note, adding an additional 292,000 jobs in December. Of course, all economic woes are not solved. It’s clear from the data that we are still far from a full employment economy. Notably, wage growth is still not where it ought to be, and the prime-age employment-to-population ratio is barely half-way back to its 2007 level, which was not a banner year for full employment to begin with.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data released this morning provide further evidence that the economy is chugging along, but has a ways to go before the labor market is fully recovered. While my favorite indicators to watch on jobs day are nominal wage growth and the prime-age employment-to-population ratio, my favorite indicator on JOLTS day is the quits rate. There are three key lines in the graph below: the hires rate, the quits rate, and the layoffs rate.

JOLTS

Hires, quits, and layoff rates, 2000-2015

Month Hires rate Layoffs rate Quits rate
Dec-2000 4.100000 1.400000 2.300000
Jan-2001 4.400000 1.600000 2.600000
Feb-2001 4.100000 1.400000 2.500000
Mar-2001 4.200000 1.600000 2.400000
Apr-2001 4.000000 1.500000 2.400000
May-2001 4.000000 1.500000 2.400000
Jun-2001 3.800000 1.500000 2.300000
Jul-2001 3.900000 1.500000 2.200000
Aug-2001 3.800000 1.400000 2.100000
Sep-2001 3.800000 1.600000 2.100000
Oct-2001 3.800000 1.700000 2.200000
Nov-2001 3.700000 1.600000 2.000000
Dec-2001 3.700000 1.400000 2.000000
Jan-2002 3.700000 1.400000 2.200000
Feb-2002 3.700000 1.500000 2.000000
Mar-2002 3.500000 1.400000 1.900000
Apr-2002 3.800000 1.500000 2.100000
May-2002 3.800000 1.500000 2.100000
Jun-2002 3.700000 1.400000 2.000000
Jul-2002 3.800000 1.500000 2.100000
Aug-2002 3.700000 1.400000 2.000000
Sep-2002 3.700000 1.400000 2.000000
Oct-2002 3.700000 1.400000 2.000000
Nov-2002 3.800000 1.500000 1.900000
Dec-2002 3.800000 1.500000 2.000000
Jan-2003 3.800000 1.500000 1.900000
Feb-2003 3.600000 1.500000 1.900000
Mar-2003 3.400000 1.400000 1.900000
Apr-2003 3.600000 1.600000 1.800000
May-2003 3.500000 1.500000 1.800000
Jun-2003 3.700000 1.600000 1.800000
Jul-2003 3.600000 1.600000 1.800000
Aug-2003 3.600000 1.500000 1.800000
Sep-2003 3.700000 1.500000 1.900000
Oct-2003 3.800000 1.400000 1.900000
Nov-2003 3.600000 1.400000 1.900000
Dec-2003 3.800000 1.500000 1.900000
Jan-2004 3.700000 1.500000 1.900000
Feb-2004 3.600000 1.400000 1.900000
Mar-2004 3.900000 1.400000 2.000000
Apr-2004 3.900000 1.500000 2.000000
May-2004 3.800000 1.400000 1.900000
Jun-2004 3.800000 1.400000 2.000000
Jul-2004 3.700000 1.400000 2.000000
Aug-2004 3.900000 1.500000 2.000000
Sep-2004 3.800000 1.400000 2.000000
Oct-2004 3.900000 1.400000 2.000000
Nov-2004 3.900000 1.500000 2.100000
Dec-2004 4.000000 1.500000 2.100000
Jan-2005 3.900000 1.400000 2.100000
Feb-2005 3.900000 1.400000 2.000000
Mar-2005 3.900000 1.500000 2.100000
Apr-2005 4.000000 1.400000 2.100000
May-2005 3.900000 1.400000 2.100000
Jun-2005 3.900000 1.500000 2.100000
Jul-2005 3.900000 1.400000 2.000000
Aug-2005 4.000000 1.400000 2.200000
Sep-2005 4.000000 1.400000 2.300000
Oct-2005 3.800000 1.300000 2.200000
Nov-2005 3.900000 1.200000 2.200000
Dec-2005 3.700000 1.300000 2.100000
Jan-2006 3.900000 1.300000 2.100000
Feb-2006 3.900000 1.300000 2.200000
Mar-2006 3.900000 1.200000 2.200000
Apr-2006 3.800000 1.300000 2.100000
May-2006 4.000000 1.400000 2.200000
Jun-2006 3.900000 1.200000 2.200000
Jul-2006 3.900000 1.300000 2.200000
Aug-2006 3.800000 1.200000 2.200000
Sep-2006 3.800000 1.300000 2.100000
Oct-2006 3.800000 1.300000 2.100000
Nov-2006 4.000000 1.300000 2.300000
Dec-2006 3.800000 1.300000 2.200000
Jan-2007 3.800000 1.200000 2.200000
Feb-2007 3.800000 1.300000 2.200000
Mar-2007 3.800000 1.300000 2.200000
Apr-2007 3.700000 1.300000 2.100000
May-2007 3.800000 1.300000 2.200000
Jun-2007 3.800000 1.300000 2.000000
Jul-2007 3.700000 1.300000 2.100000
Aug-2007 3.700000 1.300000 2.100000
Sep-2007 3.700000 1.500000 1.900000
Oct-2007 3.800000 1.400000 2.100000
Nov-2007 3.700000 1.400000 2.000000
Dec-2007 3.600000 1.300000 2.000000
Jan-2008 3.500000 1.300000 2.000000
Feb-2008 3.500000 1.400000 2.000000
Mar-2008 3.400000 1.300000 1.900000
Apr-2008 3.500000 1.300000 2.100000
May-2008 3.300000 1.300000 1.900000
Jun-2008 3.500000 1.500000 1.900000
Jul-2008 3.300000 1.400000 1.800000
Aug-2008 3.300000 1.600000 1.700000
Sep-2008 3.100000 1.400000 1.800000
Oct-2008 3.300000 1.600000 1.800000
Nov-2008 2.900000 1.600000 1.500000
Dec-2008 3.200000 1.800000 1.600000
Jan-2009 3.100000 1.900000 1.500000
Feb-2009 3.000000 1.900000 1.500000
Mar-2009 2.800000 1.800000 1.400000
Apr-2009 2.900000 2.000000 1.300000
May-2009 2.800000 1.600000 1.300000
Jun-2009 2.800000 1.600000 1.300000
Jul-2009 2.900000 1.700000 1.300000
Aug-2009 2.900000 1.600000 1.300000
Sep-2009 3.000000 1.600000 1.300000
Oct-2009 2.900000 1.500000 1.300000
Nov-2009 3.100000 1.400000 1.400000
Dec-2009 2.900000 1.500000 1.300000
Jan-2010 3.000000 1.400000 1.300000
Feb-2010 2.900000 1.400000 1.300000
Mar-2010 3.200000 1.400000 1.400000
Apr-2010 3.100000 1.300000 1.500000
May-2010 3.300000 1.300000 1.400000
Jun-2010 3.100000 1.500000 1.500000
Jul-2010 3.200000 1.600000 1.400000
Aug-2010 3.000000 1.400000 1.400000
Sep-2010 3.100000 1.400000 1.500000
Oct-2010 3.100000 1.300000 1.400000
Nov-2010 3.100000 1.400000 1.400000
Dec-2010 3.200000 1.400000 1.500000
Jan-2011 3.000000 1.300000 1.400000
Feb-2011 3.100000 1.300000 1.400000
Mar-2011 3.300000 1.300000 1.500000
Apr-2011 3.200000 1.300000 1.500000
May-2011 3.100000 1.300000 1.500000
Jun-2011 3.300000 1.400000 1.500000
Jul-2011 3.200000 1.300000 1.500000
Aug-2011 3.200000 1.300000 1.500000
Sep-2011 3.300000 1.300000 1.500000
Oct-2011 3.200000 1.300000 1.500000
Nov-2011 3.200000 1.300000 1.500000
Dec-2011 3.200000 1.300000 1.500000
Jan-2012 3.200000 1.300000 1.500000
Feb-2012 3.300000 1.300000 1.600000
Mar-2012 3.300000 1.300000 1.600000
Apr-2012 3.200000 1.400000 1.600000
May-2012 3.300000 1.400000 1.600000
Jun-2012 3.200000 1.300000 1.600000
Jul-2012 3.200000 1.200000 1.600000
Aug-2012 3.300000 1.400000 1.600000
Sep-2012 3.100000 1.300000 1.400000
Oct-2012 3.200000 1.300000 1.500000
Nov-2012 3.300000 1.300000 1.600000
Dec-2012 3.200000 1.100000 1.600000
Jan-2013 3.300000 1.200000 1.700000
Feb-2013 3.400000 1.200000 1.700000
Mar-2013 3.200000 1.300000 1.500000
Apr-2013 3.300000 1.300000 1.700000
May-2013 3.300000 1.300000 1.600000
Jun-2013 3.200000 1.200000 1.600000
Jul-2013 3.300000 1.200000 1.700000
Aug-2013 3.400000 1.200000 1.700000
Sep-2013 3.400000 1.300000 1.700000
Oct-2013 3.300000 1.100000 1.800000
Nov-2013 3.400000 1.100000 1.800000
Dec-2013 3.300000 1.200000 1.700000
Jan-2014 3.300000 1.300000 1.700000
Feb-2014 3.400000 1.200000 1.800000
Mar-2014 3.400000 1.200000 1.800000
Apr-2014 3.500000 1.200000 1.700000
May-2014 3.500000 1.200000 1.800000
Jun-2014 3.500000 1.200000 1.800000
Jul-2014 3.600000 1.300000 1.800000
Aug-2014 3.400000 1.200000 1.800000
Sep-2014 3.600000 1.200000 2.000000
Oct-2014 3.700000 1.200000 2.000000
Nov-2014 3.600000 1.100000 1.900000
Dec-2014 3.700000 1.200000 1.900000
Jan-2015 3.500000 1.200000 2.000000
Feb-2015 3.600000 1.200000 1.900000
Mar-2015 3.600000 1.300000 2.000000
Apr-2015 3.600000 1.300000 1.900000
May-2015 3.600000 1.200000 1.900000
Jun-2015 3.700000 1.300000 1.900000
Jul-2015 3.600000 1.200000 1.900000
Aug-2015 3.600000 1.200000 1.900000
Sep-2015 3.600000 1.300000 1.900000
Oct-2015 3.600000 1.200000 2.000000
Nov-2015 3.600000 1.200000 2.000000
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The data below can be saved or copied directly into Excel.

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions. The hires rate is the number of hires during the entire month as a percent of total employment. The layoff rate is the number of layoffs and discharges during the entire month as a percent of total employment. The quits rate is the number of quits during the entire month as a percent of total employment.

Source: EPI analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

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The layoff rate was unchanged in November. Layoffs shot up during the recession but recovered quickly, and have been at pre-recession levels for more than three years. However, the hiring and quits rates still need to pick up. The hires rate held steady in November, where it has sat stubbornly for most of the last year. The voluntary quits rate also held steady, at 2.0 percent in November. The quits rate has fluttered between 1.9 and 2.0 for more than a year now. This rate is higher when the economy is stronger. A depressed quits rate indicates that workers are stuck in jobs that they would leave if they could. A larger number of people voluntarily quitting their jobs would be a sign of a labor market where workers are able to leave jobs that are not right for them and find new ones. Before long, we should see a return to pre-recession levels of voluntary quits, but we are not there yet.

The fact is that the 2015 economy is still one where employers are holding the cards in the employment relationship. They can dictate the terms of employment—wages, benefits, work hours, etc. In lieu of stronger labor market institutions, workers’ best opportunity for more bargaining power will come as the economy tightens. Strong job growth in the future will lead to high wage growth and the increased ability for workers to quit their jobs in search of ones they’d like better. The data released today provide further evidence that we are not there yet.