Disappointing Jobs Numbers and Not Enough Teachers
Today’s Bureau of Labor Statistics employment situation report showed the economy added a disappointing 142,000 jobs in September, bringing average monthly job creation to 198,000 in 2015—a rate slower than 2014. Hope for upward revisions to the low August numbers were dashed as well. In fact, July and August’s numbers were revised downward by a combined 59,000 fewer jobs. Digging into the report, we see that the civilian labor force participation rate declined, the employment-to-population ratio for prime age workers has continued to stagnate, (sitting at 77.2 percent—where it was when the year started), and wage growth is stuck at 2.2 percent. Taken together, these are signs of a labor market that retains a fair amount of slack and evidence that the Federal Reserve was right not to raise interest rates in September and indeed should not raise them in 2015.
With the September data in hand, we can look at the number of teachers who are starting work or going back to school this year. The number of teachers and education staff fell dramatically during the recession, and has failed to get anywhere near its prerecession level, let alone the level that would be required to keep up with an expanding student population. Along with the dismal shortfall in public sector employment, due to the Great Recession and the ensuing austerity at all levels of government, public education jobs are still 236,000 less than they were seven years ago. The number of teachers rose by 41,700 over the last year. While this is clearly a positive sign, adding in the number of public education jobs that should have been created just to keep up with enrollment, we are currently experiencing a 410,000 job shortfall in public education. Short sighted austerity measures have a measurable impact, hitting children in today’s classrooms.
Teacher employment and the number of jobs needed to keep up with enrollment, 2003–2015
Number of jobs | Jobs needed to keep up with student enrollment | ||
---|---|---|---|
2003-01-01 | 7697400 | ||
2003-02-01 | 7697400 | ||
2003-03-01 | 7691200 | ||
2003-04-01 | 7698500 | ||
2003-05-01 | 7695000 | ||
2003-06-01 | 7731500 | ||
2003-07-01 | 7779100 | ||
2003-08-01 | 7725200 | ||
2003-09-01 | 7667500 | ||
2003-10-01 | 7716500 | ||
2003-11-01 | 7702500 | ||
2003-12-01 | 7703100 | ||
2004-01-01 | 7712000 | ||
2004-02-01 | 7719900 | ||
2004-03-01 | 7748300 | ||
2004-04-01 | 7753800 | ||
2004-05-01 | 7776700 | ||
2004-06-01 | 7760700 | ||
2004-07-01 | 7757500 | ||
2004-08-01 | 7766900 | ||
2004-09-01 | 7774300 | ||
2004-10-01 | 7782800 | ||
2004-11-01 | 7797500 | ||
2004-12-01 | 7803200 | ||
2005-01-01 | 7821900 | ||
2005-02-01 | 7831100 | ||
2005-03-01 | 7820900 | ||
2005-04-01 | 7829400 | ||
2005-05-01 | 7840200 | ||
2005-06-01 | 7818800 | ||
2005-07-01 | 7904700 | ||
2005-08-01 | 7907300 | ||
2005-09-01 | 7878700 | ||
2005-10-01 | 7864600 | ||
2005-11-01 | 7875600 | ||
2005-12-01 | 7883000 | ||
2006-01-01 | 7882200 | ||
2006-02-01 | 7886900 | ||
2006-03-01 | 7890600 | ||
2006-04-01 | 7896100 | ||
2006-05-01 | 7883900 | ||
2006-06-01 | 7867800 | ||
2006-07-01 | 7899900 | ||
2006-08-01 | 7935200 | ||
2006-09-01 | 7972600 | ||
2006-10-01 | 7950200 | ||
2006-11-01 | 7954500 | ||
2006-12-01 | 7956800 | ||
2007-01-01 | 7959800 | ||
2007-02-01 | 7953300 | ||
2007-03-01 | 7956300 | ||
2007-04-01 | 7965400 | ||
2007-05-01 | 7974300 | ||
2007-06-01 | 7964600 | ||
2007-07-01 | 7945700 | ||
2007-08-01 | 7991800 | ||
2007-09-01 | 8008600 | ||
2007-10-01 | 8023000 | ||
2007-11-01 | 8034400 | ||
2007-12-01 | 8054700 | ||
2008-01-01 | 8053500 | ||
2008-02-01 | 8064700 | ||
2008-03-01 | 8067900 | ||
2008-04-01 | 8062000 | ||
2008-05-01 | 8078100 | ||
2008-06-01 | 8086200 | ||
2008-07-01 | 8119400 | ||
2008-08-01 | 8091900 | ||
2008-09-01 | 8085300 | 8085300 | 8085300 |
2008-10-01 | 8089800 | 8087354 | |
2008-11-01 | 8082800 | 8089408 | |
2008-12-01 | 8083600 | 8091463 | |
2009-01-01 | 8084000 | 8093519 | |
2009-02-01 | 8096700 | 8095575 | |
2009-03-01 | 8093700 | 8097631 | |
2009-04-01 | 8091600 | 8099689 | |
2009-05-01 | 8088200 | 8101746 | |
2009-06-01 | 8108400 | 8103804 | |
2009-07-01 | 8066700 | 8105863 | |
2009-08-01 | 8061900 | 8107922 | |
2009-09-01 | 8012300 | 8109982 | |
2009-10-01 | 8073700 | 8112042 | |
2009-11-01 | 8099100 | 8114103 | |
2009-12-01 | 8071600 | 8116164 | |
2010-01-01 | 8068500 | 8118226 | |
2010-02-01 | 8057000 | 8120288 | |
2010-03-01 | 8058000 | 8122351 | |
2010-04-01 | 8056300 | 8124414 | |
2010-05-01 | 8062400 | 8126478 | |
2010-06-01 | 8048600 | 8128542 | |
2010-07-01 | 8026300 | 8130607 | |
2010-08-01 | 7997100 | 8132673 | |
2010-09-01 | 7919200 | 8134739 | |
2010-10-01 | 7963700 | 8136805 | |
2010-11-01 | 7961500 | 8138872 | |
2010-12-01 | 7953500 | 8140940 | |
2011-01-01 | 7948000 | 8143008 | |
2011-02-01 | 7930300 | 8145076 | |
2011-03-01 | 7927500 | 8147146 | |
2011-04-01 | 7939600 | 8149215 | |
2011-05-01 | 7897600 | 8151285 | |
2011-06-01 | 7925400 | 8153356 | |
2011-07-01 | 7866900 | 8155427 | |
2011-08-01 | 7845400 | 8157499 | |
2011-09-01 | 7793600 | 8159571 | |
2011-10-01 | 7829100 | 8161644 | |
2011-11-01 | 7815800 | 8163718 | |
2011-12-01 | 7807900 | 8165791 | |
2012-01-01 | 7801400 | 8167866 | |
2012-02-01 | 7805000 | 8169941 | |
2012-03-01 | 7796400 | 8172016 | |
2012-04-01 | 7773900 | 8174092 | |
2012-05-01 | 7772000 | 8176169 | |
2012-06-01 | 7740800 | 8178246 | |
2012-07-01 | 7774700 | 8180323 | |
2012-08-01 | 7794400 | 8182401 | |
2012-09-01 | 7764400 | 8184480 | |
2012-10-01 | 7757600 | 8186559 | |
2012-11-01 | 7751900 | 8188639 | |
2012-12-01 | 7774300 | 8190719 | |
2013-01-01 | 7775600 | 8192800 | |
2013-02-01 | 7776800 | 8194881 | |
2013-03-01 | 7773600 | 8196963 | |
2013-04-01 | 7758800 | 8199045 | |
2013-05-01 | 7773400 | 8201128 | |
2013-06-01 | 7737300 | 8203211 | |
2013-07-01 | 7763800 | 8205295 | |
2013-08-01 | 7801400 | 8207379 | |
2013-09-01 | 7777800 | 8209464 | |
2013-10-01 | 7776800 | 8211550 | |
2013-11-01 | 7779000 | 8213636 | |
2013-12-01 | 7763700 | 8215722 | |
2014-01-01 | 7765000 | 8217809 | |
2014-02-01 | 7765400 | 8219897 | |
2014-03-01 | 7769000 | 8221985 | |
2014-04-01 | 7781900 | 8224074 | |
2014-05-01 | 7774200 | 8226163 | |
2014-06-01 | 7786500 | 8228253 | |
2014-07-01 | 7799200 | 8230343 | |
2014-08-01 | 7804500 | 8232434 | |
2014-09-01 | 7807600 | 8234525 | |
2014-10-01 | 7799500 | 8236617 | |
2014-11-01 | 7797400 | 8238709 | |
2014-12-01 | 7796700 | 8240802 | |
2015-01-01 | 7797200 | 8242896 | |
2015-02-01 | 7791400 | 8244990 | |
2015-03-01 | 7790200 | 8247084 | |
2015-04-01 | 7784600 | 8249179 | |
2015-05-01 | 7789200 | 8251275 | |
2015-06-01 | 7810600 | 8253371 | |
2015-07-01 | 7829000 | 8255467 | |
2015-08-01 | 7849300 | 8257565 | |
2015-09-01 | 7849300 | 8259662 | 8085300 |
Source: EPI analysis of Current Employment Statistics public data series and U.S. Department of Education (2014)
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